UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon held talks in Geneva today between Cyprus and Northern Cyprus leaders on revolving their decades-old dispute and reaching a reunification agreement, according to the Associated Press. UNFICYP, the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus, has been in place since 1974 and sentiment is building in the UN to withdraw the force for financial reasons and so its troops could be deployed elsewhere. Secretary General Ban has called for the parties to reach an agreement over the next year and is using the prospect of withdrawing UNFICYP as a lever to get the parties to reach an agreement.

Analysis

Although several disputes between the Cypriot parties such as property and right of return make reaching an accord difficult, an improvement in relations between the two parties over the last few years could lead to a resolution of these issues. The larger obstacle is Turkey and its EU membership bid. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is only recognized as a state by Turkey and is regarded by many as a Turkish puppet. The EU has made a Cyprus reunification agreement a condition for Turkey’s admission to the EU, which gives Ankara an incentive to support an agreement. Turkey, however, probably fears that even if a reunification agreement is reached, it still will not be admitted to the EU due to possible opposition from several EU states, especially France, Germany, and Greece. (It only takes one vote under the EU’s consensus voting rules to block the admission of a new member). If an agreement looks possible, Ankara probably will enter into negotiations with EU officials to allow reunification if all objections to its EU membership are lifted.

Debt problems plaguing some EU members probably will complicate Turkey’s EU membership bid and consequently Ankara’s support of a Cyprus accord. Even through Turkey’s economy is in far better shape at this time than the troubled Greek, Portuguese, Italian, and Irish economies, the debt crisis facing these states – especially Greece -- probably makes Turkish EU membership less likely in the near term because wealthy eurozone members such as Germany, the Netherlands, and France, do not want to take on new members from less developed economies that could pose huge financial burdens for the eurozone down the road.

[Fred Fleitz recently joined Newsmax after a 25 year career with the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the US Department of State, and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence staff. He served as Chief of Staff to Ambassador John Bolton and as a Senior Adviser to former House Intelligence Ranking Member Peter Hoekstra.]