China is, as the national intelligence strategy of the U.S. suggests, the only peer competitor with the capability and will to upend U.S. hegemony status and reshape the international system. China is the lynchpin to many of America's foreign and domestic problems.
China is involved in America's fentanyl epidemic, a panic over America's technological superiority in artificial intelligence, a debate over the appropriate role of social media and foreign influence in American society, and the target of a vast range of industrial policies to spur America's reindustrialization. No matter the issue, policymakers are forced to consider how legislation affects the U.S.-China competition.
China remains a rare area of bipartisan agreement among the American public and legislators. Multiple polls show that regardless of demographics or political ideologies, Americans are skeptical toward China and willing to support leaders who confront Beijing.
This is true even when other ideological differences exist, and it partly explains why Secretary Marco Rubio had such an easy Senate confirmation.
President Donald Trump and his team need to protect and nurture this bipartisan consensus. This is why understanding Chinese diplomatic strategy and realpolitik is crucial.
To paraphrase Henry Kissinger: The West plays chess, seeking a decisive battle, China plays Weiqi [Go], seeking to win a long contest.
If you don't understand this mindset and mistake outward inaction for weakness, you can't engage with China in anything but the matter it chooses. Chinese netizens seem to understand this intuitively.
A meme has emerged — first on the Chinese internet, then spreading globally — of Chinese President Xi Jinping sitting confidently with the text "Do Nothing: Win" beneath the shadow of Confucius. This references another maxim of Chinese statecraft: "To subdue your enemy without violence is supreme excellence."
President Trump has a rare opportunity to turn his heavy-handed image against Xi.
Trump will not abandon the persona that brought him to power. Instead, just like President Richard Nixon did 50 years ago, Trump (or his team) can use his blustering image to the advantage of American diplomacy.
Trump needs to be America's "bad cop." Or, as when applied to Nixon, Trump must be the "madman" — someone so unpredictable that his rhetoric is at once threatening, but plausibly meaningless.
Take tariffs as an example. Trump is absolutely justified in tackling the de minimis tariff loophole, which allowed China to export goods into the U.S. so long as the value of shipments was below $800.
However, throwing the baby out with the bathwater and threatening sanctions against allies is self-defeating.
While at the time of writing, sanctions are on pause for 30 days, relations with America's partners remain frayed. This is a danger and an opportunity: Few would expect a pivot.
Taiwan provides an opportunity for Trump to dupe Xi. Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), was founded in its modern incarnation by vanquished anti-Communist forces at the end of the Chinese civil war.
Since then, the ROC has been a faithful partner of the United States through the tumult of the Cold War. It also developed into an engine of the global economy with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) helping fuel American technological innovation.
As one would expect with such a storied history, triangulating relations with China has always been difficult.
In 1979, the U.S. recognized the People's Republic and withdrew its recognition of the ROC. Relations with Taiwan were maintained under the doctrine of "strategic ambiguity," wherein the U.S. never officially declared it would defend Taiwan, while still accepting the "One China Policy."
It also acknowledged Chinese cultural considerations by providing a means for China to save face: Even if the U.S. was obvious in its commitments toward Taiwan, it publicly declared itself ambivalent.
This is the type of strategy the West underutilized but best performs against China: subtle, long-term strategies interspersed with feverish activity.
The Sino-American tech race, most recently showcased with the panic over China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough, means Taiwan and its vital production of advanced computing chips will remain a strategic consideration for the U.S. Trump's proposed tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers complicate this relationship and risk redirecting these chips to work for others' benefit.
Prior to the Trump administration, TSMC was already opening a factory in Arizona and had received generous federal inducements to do so. Trump's announcement has prompted Taiwan to float assistance to companies relocating to the U.S., but as of the time of writing, nothing definitive has manifested from either side.
Putting sanctions on Taiwan, the unsinkable aircraft carrier off China's coast that supplies much of our cutting-edge technology and bottles up the Chinese navy, would be a mistake.
Encourage TSMC and threaten it to induce more reshoring of production in America? Sure.
However, slapping tariffs on Taiwan and isolating it wouldn't just be a mistake; it would be a gift to Beijing. Trump and his team should expect China to continue to needle at Trump, hoping to provoke an overreaction that hurts both the U.S. and Taiwan.
It is intuitive in America to demand action from leaders. "Vigorous," "decisive," and "forceful" are adjectives that politicians labor to have associated with their names.
America needs to be aware of this cultural facet and remain on guard against walking into Chinese traps. We must also be cognizant that China, too, is aware of the impulses of the American body politic.
If the world believes Trump to be a bull in a China shop, Xi fancies himself a matador.
Wesley Alexander Hill is the Assistant Director of the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center. Wesley is an expert on grand strategy, geo-economics, and international relations with a regional specialization in China, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Wesley has unique expertise concerning Chinese influence in Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese foreign and macroeconomic policy as well as Sino-American competition. Wesley can also be followed on Forbes, where he is a contributor.
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