As a well-known Las Vegas oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites.
As a matter of fact, I have no favorites in this race among Romney or Obama. I am a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee and chairman of the Libertarian National Campaign Committee.
My vote will go to Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any governor in modern U.S. political history.
Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turn America around.
But forget emotion. As a successful oddsmaker, I simply use my gut instincts and common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years’ predictions.
I predicted back then — before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt — that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide.
I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in the polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient — common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for John McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land.
But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now — and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88 percent of their vote instead of the 96 percent he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group either. If Romney picks Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his VP running-mate, the GOP may pick up an extra 10 percent to 15 percent of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78 percent in 2008 to the low 60s. This is not good news for Obama.
Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from four years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke — a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
Small business owners.
Because I ran for vice president last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners.
At least 40 percent of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama four years ago to “give someone different a chance.”
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business — that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way, that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt.
My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
Blue-collar working-class whites.
Do I need to say a thing? White working-class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans are with the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
The issue isn’t contraception. It’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Obama is losing support like a sinking ship. The leaks are everywhere, among virtually every group.
Obama is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt. To really get to know Obama is to realize that his only real skill is giving speeches — with a teleprompter.
In this regard, Obama has a lot in common with Facebook. They are both all about hope and hype. But once you get to actually see the business model, there is nothing left to do but sell short.
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be an historic landslide, and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda.
It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
Wayne Allyn Root is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. He now serves as Chairman of the Libertarian National Campaign Committee. Read more reports from Wayne Allyn Root — Click Here Now.
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