President Donald Trump might find difficulty in winning votes in swing states if he cannot pin down a trade deal with China and overcome congressional obstacles to pass a new North American trade agreement, reports Politico.
Trump won the 2016 presidential election convincingly in 26 states. But he squeaked by with wins in four of those states – Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – which were all won by Barack Obama in 2012.
Trump signed a new deal with Mexico and Canada late last year to replace NAFTA, though legislation has stalled in Congress because Democrats have not approved of the plan. A trade deal with China has yet to be agreed upon, though discussions are still ongoing.
The lack of a deal has proved problematic.
"Manufacturing is in recession right now. This is what all the data show," said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. "And everywhere I go in the world, the fear I hear is that we are going to be driven deeper into recession because this is all about uncertainty caused by the trade war."
The slump could hurt Trump in places like Racine County, Wisc., where the jobless rate rose by three-tenths of a percent from January 2018 to August 2019, per Politico.
"To the extent that the manufacturing slowdown continues unabated, which is likely unless there is a de-escalation in trade tensions, the electoral map could be more difficult for President Trump and Republicans in 2020," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report this week.
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