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Tags: south | boom | population | political | representation | blue states | outmigration

South's Boom Could Affect Future Political Representation

By    |   Wednesday, 20 December 2023 01:14 PM EST

The South's booming population could be bad news for several blue states in regard to political representation next decade.

Trends in the population estimates released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau indicate the continued shift of congressional representation away from the West Coast and Northeast to the South and West, Politico reported.

The next congressional apportionment, the process of assigning how many House seats and Electoral College votes each state gets, will occur after the 2030 census.

If the current population trends continue, Texas and Florida would benefit greatly in the next apportionment, according to the non-profit, non-partisan Fair Lines America Foundation. Texas would pick up four seats and Florida three.

Republicans control the mapmaking process in both states.

The big losers in the next apportionment could be California, New York, and Illinois. Based on estimates, California would lose four seats, New York three, and Illinois two.

Democrats have the final say in redistricting in both New York and Illinois. California has an independent commission.

The South's population grew by 1.1% over the last six months of 2022 and the first six of 2023 for an estimated increase of 1,423,260 people, which accounts for 87% of the nation's growth throughout 2023, according to the Census Bureau.

The West and the Midwest grew by about 0.2%, an estimated 126,255 in the Midwest and 137,299 in the West. The Northeast's population shrank by 0.1%, for an estimated loss of 43,330 people.

After reapportionment occurs at the federal level, state legislatures draw electoral district boundaries. In recent years, redistricting has led to legal battles.

Court challenges to congressional redistricting maps in several states cloud predictions of 2024 races that could determine which party will have the majority.

The Brennan Center for Justice reported 74 cases had been filed in 27 states regarding congressional and legislative district maps as of July 7, with 45 pending trial or appeal.

New York's highest court last week gave Democrats a chance to redraw the state's congressional districts, a major victory as the party tries to win control of the U.S. House next year.

However, the process will be closely watched for any sign of partisan gerrymandering — drawing lines that give one party an unfair advantage — which is forbidden by state law. And Republicans are expected to challenge the results in court as they try to retain their slim House majority.

The Associated Press contributed this story.

Charlie McCarthy

Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

The South's booming population could be bad news for several blue states in regard to political representation next decade.
south, boom, population, political, representation, blue states, outmigration
Wednesday, 20 December 2023 01:14 PM
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