A new online betting site called "PredictIt" allows traders to make money by weighing in on the upcoming presidential election and political issues, NPR
Bettors answer "yes" or "no" to questions like who will win the Iowa caucuses and will there be a government shutdown on Oct. 1?
According to NPR, the value of the yes or no options rise and fall on supply and demand, just like at the stock exchange.
For example, Sen. Bernie Sanders is trading ahead of Hillary Clinton at the moment and regarding a shutdown, 'no' was trading at 67 cents a share on Thursday.
"It's a winner-take-all $1 contract, where one person is saying, 'Yes this will happen,' and one person is saying, 'No, it won't happen,'" PredictIt owner John Aristotle Phillips told NPR.
"And we put the 'yes' person together with the 'no' person, and that's how we get the market."
He said "traders" can buy or sell their "stock" at any point. There is a limit of $850 on trades.
PredictIt bills itself as "an exciting new, real money game" and says the key to successfully winning is "timing."
Make your predictions when most people disagree with you and the price is low. When it turns out that your view may be right, the value of your predictions will rise. You'll need to choose the best time to sell," the site says.
"Keep in mind that, although the stakes are limited, PredictIt involves real money so the consequences of being wrong can be painful. Of course, winning can also be extra sweet."
As for which candidate will ultimately nab the GOP presidential nomination, PredictIt users say it's former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Runners-up for the nomination are, in order,
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Fiorina, billionaire developer Donald Trump, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.
That order can change in a matter of seconds, however.
The site is sponsored by New Zealand's Victoria University, which set it up to "research the potential value of prediction markets in understanding the future."
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