Small Business Optimism Up 8 Points Since Trump Win

The Small Business Optimism Index spiked above the 50-year average for the first time in 34 months in November in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, according to the latest report released by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on Tuesday.

The index jumped eight points to 101.7, its highest level since June 2021. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index dropped by eight points during the same span, according to the NFIB.

"The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners," wrote Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB's chief economist. "Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty."

Among other NFIB findings:

• "The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve rose 41 points from October to a net 36%, the highest since June 2020;
• The net percent of small-business owners believing it is a good time to expand their business rose eight points to a net 14%. This is the highest reading since June 2021;
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 18 points to a net 14% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since February 2020."

"Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small-business owners are eager to expand their operations," Dunkelberg wrote.

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