Tags: cook political report | texas | pennsylvania | electoral college | election | battleground

Cook Report: Pennsylvania Critical for Trump, Texas Toss-Up

a graphic showing pennsylvania ballot box with votes flying in
(Dreamstime)

By    |   Wednesday, 28 October 2020 04:46 PM

The longtime deep red state of Texas has moved to a toss-up, according to The Cook Political Report, tightening President Donald Trump's path to reelection.

Ultimately, Pennsylvania is shaping up as a must-win state for Trump as Biden's path to 270 electors has widened, according to the CPR analysis.

"To win the election, Trump will need to win every state we currently have in the Toss Up column: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Maine's 2nd CD, as well as the newest addition, Texas," CPR's Amy Walter reported.

"Even then, Trump would be 22 electoral votes short of 270. He would need to win at least two of the seven states currently sitting in Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Trump carried all but Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire in 2016."

Pennsylvania's 20 electors have become pivotal in the final days before the Nov. 3 presidential election.

"In Pennsylvania, the conventional wisdom, as well as the Trump campaign, see a tightening race," Walter added. "The FiveThirtyEight polling average puts Biden ahead by 5 points. But, congressional district polling paints a different — and more difficult — picture for the president. These polls find Biden expanding Clinton's margins in suburban Philadelphia, but also find Trump failing to put up the same kind of numbers he did in 2016 in central, western and northeastern Pennsylvania."

None of it would matter if Biden were able to pull off shockers in Florida and Texas, states GOP candidates need to win historically.

"Texas' shift from Lean Republican to Toss-Up shouldn't come as a surprise," Walter wrote. "Recent polling in the state — both public and private — shows a 2-4 point race. That's pretty much in line with the hotly contested 2018 Senate race in the state where Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke 51%-48%."

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The longtime deep red state of Texas has moved to a toss-up, according to The Cook Political Report, tightening President Donald Trump's path to reelection.
cook political report, texas, pennsylvania, electoral college, election, battleground
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2020-46-28
Wednesday, 28 October 2020 04:46 PM
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