Tags: Romney | Reuters | bounce | polls

Romney Leads Two Polls After Convention Ends

Friday, 31 August 2012 11:15 AM

Early polling is starting to show a convention bounce for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who accepted his party’s nomination Thursday in a speech in which he declared, “Now is the time to restore the promise of America."

A Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released Thursday gave Romney a six-point swing, giving him a two percentage point lead over President Barack Obama.

He now leads Obama by 44 to 42 percent having previously trailed 46 to 42 percent, the poll showed.

And the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday had Romney up by one, leading 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent. The poll was the first in a week that showed the challenger leading the incumbent.

“The daily tracking so far does indicate that Romney has received a modest ‘bounce’ from the convention,” Rasmussen noted. “It will take another few days to fully measure the size of that bounce and another week to measure the Obama ‘bounce’ from the Democratic convention.”

The GOP concluded their national convention in Tampa Thursday night with a focus on their candidate’s life and accomplishment. Romney then took to the stage and promised to restore the nation’s economy, create 12 million jobs and criticized Obama’s stewardship.

"What is needed in our country today is not complicated or profound. It doesn't take a special government commission to tell us what America needs. What America needs is jobs. Lots of jobs," Romney told the audience.

The Democratic National Convention begins Tuesday in Charlotte, N.C.
Recent presidential history has shown that convention bounces have become more modest over the years as the attention on the parties’ political conventions has faded and as the voting public became more polarized. Typically, candidates can now expect a bounce of about five points and it is generally short-lived and not predictive of the eventual outcome in the fall.

According to Gallup polls of registered voters, Al Gore and George W. Bush each got an eight-point bounce in 2000, Michael Dukakis went up 7 in 1988, Walter Mondale by 9 in 1984, and in 1980 Jimmy Carter went up by 10 while Ronald Reagan jumped by 8.

However, coming out of his convention four years ago, Obama got a four-point bounce and John McCain six. In 2004 John Kerry actually dropped a point after his convention and George W. Bush only inched up by two.

The Reuters poll also showed that Romney’s likeability numbers were ticking up. While he still trails Obama by 20 on this measure his rating now is at 30 percent, up from 26 percent. Some 32 percent also say Romney is a "good person," up from 29 percent on Monday. Romney still trails Obama by 10 points in this category.

"Any ground that he can gain on this is very critical," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

The Reuters poll also showed that 47 percent of registered voters had a favorable view of Romney’s running mate Rep. Paul Ryan while 53 percent had an unfavorable view.

Romney’s strong suit continues to be the economy with 76 percent of those polled by Reuters believing the nation’s economy is on the wrong track.

Rasmussen found that 48 percent trust Romney more than Obama on handling the economy compared to 44 percent who trust the president more.
“The good news for Romney is that he still has the edge on this issue,” Rasmussen noted. “The good news for Obama is that Romney’s advantage has been shrinking over the last few months.”

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Friday, 31 August 2012 11:15 AM
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