Tags: sweden | herd | immunity | gdp

Five Good Reasons Why We Shouldn't Lockdown Again

albert einstein rendering in croation park

Albert Einstein, who once said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results." Opatija, Croatia - rendering in Angiolina Park, c. Aug. 2014. (Photo: Bojan Bokic/Dreamstime)

By Friday, 26 June 2020 01:18 PM Current | Bio | Archive

After careful evaluation of the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, it has become clear that the draconian lock-down measures should not be used again to control this disease.

Here are five compelling reasons why: 

1. Lockdowns were followed by significant increases in the number of deaths wherever they were implemented. For example, when New York state initiated its lockdown measures on March 20 of this year, they had experienced only 100 deaths. After three months of their scientifically unfounded decision to isolate healthy people in homes, the death toll reached more than 31,000.

We have seen this pattern repeated almost everywhere in the United States and other countries, where the lockdown approach was employed. If there is an increase in numbers of deaths following lockdowns, then enacting such policies virtually guarantees a far worse toll than we would have experienced by reopening our economy.

The reason the numbers of deaths increase following lockdowns could be that lockdowns deprive people from developing natural immunity, thus making them more vulnerable to succumbing to the virus if they catch the disease. Moreover, forcing possible asymptomatic carriers to stay isolated longer with healthy people in households probably has resulted in those increased infections.

2. The so-called Ferguson Model, which provided the rationale for imposing lock-down measures, has proven to be a failure.

It should not be used again.

It failed miserably in the past in predicting the spread of the Swine flu and Mad Cow Disease, and it has failed again in predicting COVID-19 deaths.

For example, Ferguson predicted the number of deaths in Sweden at 100,000 by June if they did not initiate lock-downs. Yet Sweden never initiated lock-downs, and recorded deaths from COVID-19 will reach only about 5,000 by the end of the month.

In fact, Neil Ferguson himself praised the Swedish approach to handling the epidemic without lockdowns.

3. It is both unscientific and illogical to initiate an unfounded approach to order healthy people to stay home without evaluating the resulting collateral damage.

4. In general, Sweden’s model to open the country has not caused significantly higher death rates compared to other Western countries that ordered the lockdowns. These include the United States, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and France.

In fact, the Serious (or critical) cases /Active coronavirus cases is currently lowest in Sweden (0.3%) compared to almost all other western nations. Compare this Serious/Active cases ratio in Sweden (0.3%) to the same metric in other countries: U.S. (1.2%), Germany (4%), Italy (1%), France (1%), Norway (1.5%), Finland (0.8%), and Denmark (1.5%).

This low serious (or critical)/active cases ratio is likely an indicator of having a better herd immunity in Sweden compared to other western countries. Higher immunity may make Sweden much less dependent on vaccination to achieve the desired herd immunity compared to many other countries. Furthermore, in contrast, the Sweden’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020 increased despite the presence of the coronavirus, unlike the countries that ordered lockdowns.

5. According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, "News From the Non-Lockdown States," the per-capita COVID fatalities in states that stayed open, on average, were about 75% lower than those that locked down.

Yes, it's fair to say that measures such as decreasing the numbers of gatherings in closed spaces and giving extra care to the elderly have scientific rationale. But there is no rationale for repeating an approach proven to be not only a failure but also a possible perpetuator of the disease.

To quote Albert Einstein, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."

Dr. Tawfik Hamid (aka Tarek Abdelhamid) M.D.; Mlitt (Edu) has testified before Congress and before the European Parliament. Dr. Hamid is the author of "Inside Jihad: How Radical Islam Works, Why It Should Terrify Us, How to Defeat It." Read Dr. Tawfik Hamid's Reports — More Here. 

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It's fair to say that measures such as decreasing the numbers of gatherings in closed spaces and giving extra care to the elderly have scientific rationale. But there is no rationale for repeating an approach proven to be not only a failure but also a possible perpetuator.
sweden, herd, immunity, gdp
Friday, 26 June 2020 01:18 PM
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