Tags: 2020 Elections | Trump Administration | trump | win | economy | re-election

Oxford Economics: Trump Would Win Re-Election Based on Economy

Oxford Economics: Trump Would Win Re-Election Based on Economy
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Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:23 AM

If the 2020 election is decided on the economy, historic trends suggest that President Donald Trump would win by 5 percentage points, according to a new analysis by the economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics.

“A record-low unemployment rate, subdued inflation and only moderately cooler income growth will favor the incumbent party despite some party fatigue,” according to the analysis. Trump could even survive a slight downturn, it concludes.

Oxford Economics reached that conclusion based on a model by Ray Fair of Yale University, who has studied the economic factors that best predict presidential elections dating to 1916.

But the analysis carries a big caveat: “Non-economic factors are likely to play an outsized role in this election.”

Those factors include the impeachment inquiry announced by House Democrats and Trump’s likability. The model also doesn’t take the Electoral College vote into account.

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If the 2020 election is decided on the economy, historic trends suggest that President Donald Trump would win by 5 percentage points, according to a new analysis by the economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics.
trump, win, economy, re-election
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2019-23-10
Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:23 AM
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