White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow predicts the U.S. economy will grow between 20% and 30% for the rest of the year.
"Twenty-percent-plus growth in the third and fourth quarters. You can score that," the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser recently told Fox Business Network.
"We're going to have a big bang year next year when the president puts in his free-market reward success policy," said Kudlow, who worked as Reagan’s budget deputy between 1981 and 1985.
The U.S. will flourish in a robust V-shaped economic recovery despite concerns that new spikes in coronavirus cases throughout June and July might make that prospect less likely, said Kudlow, who served as the Trump campaign's senior economic adviser.
The nation "created over 9 million jobs...in the last three months," and that he thinks the U.S. is headed "for [a] strong, V-shaped recovery" from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 25.6 percent on August 18, down from 26.2 percent on August 14.
Elsewhere, the New York Fed said Friday that its Nowcast stands at 14.6% for 2020:Q3.
"News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q3 by 0.2 percentage point," the New York Fed said. "Negative surprises from the Empire State Manufacturing survey and housing starts data drove most of the decrease."
Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of over 110 economists taken Aug. 14-20 found the U.S. economy — which remains the global epicenter of the virus with over 5.5 million cases — would grow 18.8% this quarter on an annualized basis after shrinking a record 32.9% last quarter.
It was then expected to grow 6.1% in Q4, slightly slower than the 6.5% rate predicted in July. That is a bit stronger than the best quarter during the recovery from recession following the global financial crisis over a decade ago.
"With consumer confidence weakening, employment growth stalling and incomes being squeezed by lower federal unemployment benefits, there is the potential for a period of weaker economic activity in the absence of more support," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York.
"There is still huge uncertainty about a vaccine and its efficacy. Given the economic challenges already mentioned we suspect that the recovery could take longer than many anticipate."
The latest findings stand in sharp contrast to exuberance on Wall Street, where benchmark stock indexes have recovered all of the 35% losses incurred at the start of the pandemic and are trading just below record highs.
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