NY Fed: Americans Expect Inflation to Remain at 3%

The U.S. public's outlook for inflationary pressures was little changed last month amid an ongoing retreat in current price pressures, according to a report released Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the regional Fed bank found that in August respondents saw inflation a year and five years from now at 3% and 2.8%, respectively, unchanged from July. Three years from now, survey respondents expected inflation to be 2.5%, from 2.3% in July.

The report also found that the expected change in house prices rose to 3.1% in August, from 3% in the prior month.

With price pressures steadily retreating and risks rising in the job market, the Fed is almost certain next week to cut its benchmark overnight interest rate from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. After the release on Friday of soft hiring data for August, markets are split as to whether the U.S. central bank will cut its policy rate by one quarter or one half of a percentage point, although most traders and investors believe a series of rate cuts will follow.

Although overall expectations for inflation were mostly steady in August, the New York Fed report found the public expected higher price rises for gas, rent and medical care, and slower gains in those for food and college.

The report said respondents viewed the outlook for the labor market as mixed, with expectations of higher income and earnings growth. Spending expectations also increased.

The survey also found improved expectations for credit access, although respondents reported a third straight month of increasing expectations of missing a debt payment, with the reading in August at its highest since April 2020.