Donald J. Trump will win reelection as President of the United States. There, I've said it. That's the whole ballgame. This post will now consist of three parts: 1) Why I might be wrong; 2) Why I think I'm right; and 3) How to watch the returns on Election Night. Here goes.
One can make a strong case for Joe Biden. He has three huge assets that any candidate would want: Polls, Money and Likeability. There must be close to 200 national polls, from the major media companies to a long list of colleges and major universities. There are only two that have president Trump ahead of Joe Biden in the popular vote, and both by only one point. Even the legendary "Republican" poll, Rasmussen, has Biden ahead by three.
And don't forget the presidential betting markets. Biden is a solid 2-1 favorite right now. As for money, Biden is rolling in it. The billionaires have all signed on. Mike Bloomberg dropped a cool hundred million into Florida and Wall Street came up large. Just turn on your television. It's all Biden all the time, with an occasional Trump ad dropped in the middle.
Likeability? Well, it's Good Ole Joe against schoolyard bully Trump. No contest. Social media? Conservatives are being censored, deplatformed and untweeted at a rapid pace. The social media giants and their Californian tech friends are all in for Joe. Not bad.
Vote counting? Rest assured this will be the highest turnout election in American history. One-hundred thirty-eight million Americans voted in 2016. We'll easily break one-hundred fifty this time. And the Democrats own the mail, and the ballot harvesting, and the post-Election Day counting.
So why am I picking Joe to lose and Trump to pull off the second biggest political upset in American history? (2016 was numero uno). Leslie Stahl of "60 Minutes" asked President Trump: "Who are your supporters?" His response: "People who love America." It starts and ends there. President Trump loves America. I love America. Case closed.
Joe has the polls but Trump has the issues. Presidents are elected for two reasons: To build and maintain a strong economy and to keep us safe. Trump wins both issues hands down. Trump has the highest "Better Off" numbers in reelection history, 56%, according to Gallup. Obama/Biden was more than 10 points behind.
Safety? Only Democrat cities were burned and looted, and responded by defunding their cops. And only Democrats, including members of Joe Biden's campaign staff, bailed them out. Antifa? Trump wants them declared a domestic terrorist organization. Biden said: "Antifa is just an idea."
President Trump has the people: Campaign rallies, boat rallies, motorcycle rallies, car rallies, truck rallies, sign waving. President Trump has ALL the people. His 8% Black vote in 2016 will more than double in 2020. That's winning all over the country. The Hispanic vote is all in for Trump. He could hit 50%, particularly in Florida. The Latin American immigrant groups, led by Cubans and Venezuelans, have seen socialism up close. They're all in for Trump and their adopted America. Indeed, in the last year, Republican registration in Florida has added a net 100,000 voters. It's going to be all sunshine in Florida for Trump on Election Day.
And remember all those pro Biden polls? Consider this: Biden leads in the Real Clear Politics Battleground combined poll by three points. Hillary led by four. Biden leads in the betting markets 2-1. Hillary led by 3-1. Rasmussen. It's Biden + 3 today. On Election Day 2016 it was Hillary + 3. Get the picture?
And what about all of those Biden unforced errors? In no particular order: Biden is closing all the charter schools; Joe picked Kamala Harris to be his Veep running mate; Biden is considering a frontal assault on our Constitution with court packing; he won't open the schools or the economy; he plans on giving 11 million (it's really 20 million) illegals citizenship and voting privileges; he will "transition" away from fossil fuels; and he'll tear down and rebuild large numbers of office buildings to fulfil AOC's "Green New Deal" insanity.
And then there's Hunter Biden, the family's big money earner. The public is now aware that there is an untold story out there. The media tried to ignore it but President Trump used the second debate to shake the bushes. And that's my case for the reelection of president Donald J. Trump.
And that brings us to Election Night 2020. Settle in. It's going to get late early. But you can impress your friends with the following insights: First, watch New Hampshire. It's early, Eastern, small and easy to count and declare. If New Hampshire is called early for either candidate, that's a big sign that that candidate is looking at a happy ending. If New Hampshire stays open (as it did for 10 days in 2016) we're in for a long dogfight.
Next, watch Virginia. It always goes Democrat. If it flips or remains uncalled, Trump is on a roll. Next, watch Georgia. It always goes Republican. If it flips or remains uncalled, Biden is on a roll. And last, and maybe most important, watch it all on the New York Times Election Night statistical site. They tell you what's been counted, what's still open and what is the probability of either candidate winning the state. It updates all night long. You'll be way ahead of the TV guys and gals.
That's all I got. See you on the other side.
Sid Dinerstein is a former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party. He founded JBS Associates, a 600-person financial service company, and currently combines politics and business with Niger Innis in Inclusive Elections LLC, a firm that brings urban electorate voters to the GOP. He is the author of "Adults Only: For Those Who Love Their Country More Than Their Party." Read Sid Dinerstein's Reports — More Here.
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