The Blue Wave! It’s coming. A tsunami of minorities, millennials, never-Trumpers, and all the remaining good and decent people in America who will save us from the ravages of Trumpism. How lucky are we! It’s time to have this conversation. Republicans ask me almost daily: “Are the midterms going to be a total disaster?” And I respond with two of my favorite retorts: First, “I’ll tell you when to worry. Now is not the time.” And, second: “Turn off your television.” For those interested in the larger explanation, keep reading.
The Blue Wave has a number of elements that suggest its viability. For one, check out voter enthusiasm. The Republicans had it in 2016 and the Democrats have it now. There are those who think enthusiasm doesn’t count because you can only vote once. But as we have learned, once is more than enough. The Black community’s enthusiasm for President Obama and the Midwestern blue-collar community’s enthusiasm for President Trump was decisive in the last three presidential elections.
And there’s more. Over forty Republican Congressmen have announced their intention not to seek reelection. This includes major players like Speaker Paul Ryan and Conservative favorite Trey Gowdy. That means that forty likely safe seats generate at least ten tossups, a serious opportunity for the Democrats.
The cousin of Republican retirements is Liberal gerrymandering. Places like Pennsylvania and Florida are more Democrat friendly due to recent state Supreme Court district re-drawings. Judges count! And what about the millennials? They’re noisy enough and clearly add to the excitement. Even Newt Gingrich is sounding the alarm.
So what about the other side? What’s the argument against the Blue Wave? Is there such an argument? Pay attention. First a word about polling. I’m a Rasmussen fan. The Liberals call Rasmussen “the Republican poll.” Why? Because they got it right. On Election Day 2016 Rasmussen predicted Hillary would beat Trump by three percent of the popular vote. Bingo! That was the exact number. Liberals have a different concept of polling. They believe the polling company CEO can give his own money to Hillary and other Democrats and his polling company, Survey Monkey, NBC’s go-to polling company, should still be seen as legitimate. When WikiLeaks informs us as to the polling coordination between the Hillary campaign and some major polling companies we’re supposed to accept their results. Not me. So I stick with Rasmussen.
On Rasmussen, Trump is polling close to 50 percent, and has been for a month or two. If the midterm elections are a referendum on Trump, his 50 percent means the Blue Wave might be a washout. Why? Because he wasn’t at 50 percent when he won on Election Day and because President Obama wasn’t at 50 percent at this time in his presidency. And there’s more. Rasmussen polls the Congressional Generic Ballot. Last winter the Dems were +15. Today they’re +5 and trending lower. A win? Maybe. A wave? Probably not. Right direction/wrong direction? 29 percent for Obama. 40 percent for Trump. Consumer Confidence? Up under Trump. It was one thing for Republicans to run against Obamacare and Obama’s endless recession. It’s quite another for Democrats to run against a strong economy, recent tax cuts, expanding job opportunities and falling unemployment.
And speaking of issues, can you ride a Blue Wave on the backs of illegal immigrants and sanctuary cities? Is repealing popular tax cuts a winner? Should the Democrats run on the Impeachment issue? Is Nancy Pelosi a good face for the anti-Trumpers? And two more elements: Off-year elections (non-presidential) turn out around 50 percent rather than the presidential turnout of 70 percent. The drop-off is usually disproportionately Democrats, urbanites the Democrats refer to as “low information” voters. Couple that with a huge money advantage the RNC is running against the DNC and again the Blue Wave seems threatened.
Me? I’m betting the Republicans keep the House and expand their lead in the Senate (with possible goodbyes to Nelson, McCaskill, and Manchin). All opinions are welcome. It’s a long, long way from May to November.
Sid Dinerstein is a former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party. He founded JBS Associates, a 600-person financial service company, and currently combines politics and business with Niger Innis in Inclusive Elections LLC, a firm that brings urban electorate voters to the GOP. He is the author of "Adults Only: For Those Who Love Their Country More Than Their Party." For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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