A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that if everything breaks their way between now and November, Democrats could pick up a total of 59 seats in the House of Representatives.
Currently, 208 House races are rated as at least tilting in the Democratic direction. Winning those races would reflect a net gain of 13, more than half of the 23 needed to gain majority control. They could win the majority simply by taking 10 of the 19 toss-ups currently in play.
If they won all the toss-ups, there are 12 more races barely tilting in the GOP direction now. With a good Democratic turnout in November, they could flip as well. With a very good night for Rep. Nancy Pelosi's party, another 15 Republican seats might be at risk.
Add it all up, and it gives the Democrats a potential upside of gaining 59 seats on Election Day. That would give them a 254-181 majority.
For the Republican Party to keep its majority would require winning at least 10 of the 19 toss-up races and successfully defending the 27 seats potentially at risk.
Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com Generic Ballot Poll shows Democrats with a nine-point advantage (up from six a week ago). Other polling shows similar results. If that’s the margin on Election Day, the Democrats would almost certainly win control of the House.
Despite that, 77 percent of Republican voters still expect their team to retain control of the House following November's elections. That level of confidence concerns GOP strategists who believe it might lead some Republican voters to stay home rather than vote.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.
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