Tags: Polls | clinton | nolan | paulsen

10 Percent of U.S. House Races Likely to be Competitive

10 Percent of U.S. House Races Likely to be Competitive

U.S. House of Representatives at the Capitol in Washington D.C. (Kmiragaya/Dreamstime)

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Thursday, 18 January 2018 05:10 PM Current | Bio | Archive

Of the nation’s 435 U.S. House races this November, just 10 percent are likely to be competitive. The preliminary scoreboard at ScottRasmussen.com shows that six races are pure toss-ups, 11 barely tilt in the GOP direction, and three tilt toward the Democrats. Nineteen seats lean Republican, while six lean Democratic.

These 45 races are close enough that it is possible for either party to win them in November. As a result, they will help determine which party wins majority control of Congress.

Perhaps the most interesting state to watch will be Minnesota. Fully half of the state’s eight congressional districts are in the competitive category.

  • The 3rd District is represented by Republican Erik Paulsen, who won in 2016 despite the fact that Clinton won the district by 10 points. This is precisely the kind of race Democrats need to win in order to control the House. Currently, the race leans in the Republican direction.

  • Minnesota-2 is a toss-up at the moment. It’s an open seat where both the congressional district and presidential races were close in 2016.

  • In the 8th District, the race leans in favor of incumbent Rick Nolan (D). However, he was re-elected by less than a single percentage point in 2016. President Trump won the district by 16 points.

Minnesota also has two Senate races in 2018, one of which may be competitive.

The only state with more competitive districts than Minnesota is California. But California’s six competitive races represent only 11 percent of the state’s 53 House races.

Beyond the 45 competitive races, there is little doubt about the outcome of the other 390 races (90 percent of the total). This includes 203 races that are likely or strongly Republican and 187 that are likely or strongly Democratic. Most districts are designed to heavily favor one party or the other.

Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.

Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.

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Perhaps the most interesting state to watch will be Minnesota. Fully half of the state’s eight congressional districts are in the competitive category.
clinton, nolan, paulsen
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2018-10-18
Thursday, 18 January 2018 05:10 PM
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