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Tags: ihme | metrics | china | flu

Math Models Keep US in Lock Down Virus Panic Mode

coronavirus lockdown
(Maninder Bahl/Dreamstime)

Michael Reagan By with Michael R. Shannon Friday, 17 April 2020 04:36 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

In the past, before doctors understood disease, treatments were often primitive.

When a patient fell sick doctors would bleed him, sometimes using leeches, to get bad humors in the blood out of the patient.

The results were often worse than the disease.

An already weak patient would be pushed over the edge into death as his blood was drained. The death of George Washington is a case in point.

Right now, it feels like the economy is being given the same type of treatment as its vitality leeches away in an effort to stop the China flu. Our national lockdown is being prescribed by mathematical models with inaccuracies that are beginning to rival those of global warming fanatics.

Alex Berenson, a former reporter for The New York Times, directly challenged the Wu-flu narrative in an interview with Fox News, "The response we have taken has caused enormous societal devastation, I don't think that's too strong a word."

According to Fox, "Berenson has been analyzing the data on the crisis on a daily basis for weeks and has come to the conclusion that the strategy of shutting down entire sectors of the economy is based on modeling that doesn’t line up with the realities of the virus."

Berenson’s conclusion is ominous, "In February I was worried about the virus. By mid-March I was more scared about the economy. But now I’m starting to get genuinely nervous," he tweeted this week. "This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. Why are we talking about indefnite lockdowns?"

That’s a great question.

Why do the experts and politicians have so much invested in models that aren’t accurate?

Berenson’s focus is on the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model that is currently being used to bleed the U.S. economy.

It’s prediction for deaths here has been eroding fast.

Now the prediction is for 60,000 fatalities by August.

Politicians who are enjoying their new-found power to order us around claim the reduction in predicted deaths are because they’ve done such a great job ordering us around.

That is a cover-your-behind lie.

Berenson points out social distancing protocols were part of the model’s estimates from the beginning.

He explains the models were wrong from the git-go:

"Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty.

"This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in southern California where the lockdown was early, it's true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown.

"There doesn't seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast."

The only universal effect of the Kung flu is economic devastation.

Berenson isn’t advocating a hands-off approach to the virus, but what he is advocating is abandoning the Great Pandemic Panic. "There was incredible pressure to do something . . .  so these lockdowns all cascaded, every governor tried to outdo the next. And no one stopped and said 'OK what about Japan, they don't seem to have a terrible epidemic, they wear masks, maybe we should wear masks.'"

Actions such as banning large gatherings and sporting events along with measures designed to specifically protect at-risk individuals would have "been appropriate."

The measures that were taken, in his opinion, were excessive.

"Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now — the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'" Berenson says.

That means now that the U.S. is locked in the Great Pandemic Panic it is going to be difficult to escape unless our leadership starts taking an objective look at the models and what is really happening in the country.

And then makes decisions that aren’t ego and peer-group driven.

We agree with Berenson that today would be a great time to start.

Michael Reagan, the eldest son of President Reagan, is a Newsmax TV analyst. A syndicated columnist and author, he chairs The Reagan Legacy Foundation. Michael is an in-demand speaker with Premiere speaker’s bureau. Read more reports from Michael Reagan — Go Here Now.

Michael R. Shannon is a commentator, researcher for the League of American Voters, and an award-winning political and advertising consultant with nationwide and international experience. He is author of "Conservative Christian’s Guidebook for Living in Secular Times (Now with added humor!)." Read more of Michael Shannon's reports — Go Here Now.

© Mike Reagan

The U.S. is locked in the Great Pandemic Panic it is going to be difficult to escape unless our leadership starts taking an objective look at the models and what is really happening in the country.
ihme, metrics, china, flu
Friday, 17 April 2020 04:36 PM
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