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Tags: covid | lockdown
OPINION

Mathematician's Sane Coronavirus Second Opinion

coronavirus and mathematics
(Bang Oland/Dreamstime)

Michael Reagan By with Michael R. Shannon Friday, 24 April 2020 04:14 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

Right now, while the country is still in the iron grip of the "We’re all gonna die" caucus, it might be useful to get a second opinion from someone who doesn’t have their reputation or political career invested in keeping the country under lock and key.

Bob Dylan had a point when he wrote in "Subterranean Homesick Blues," "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

The same can be said when it comes to analyzing the statistics from the WuFlu.

The Times of Israel has a report on Tel-Aviv University Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, who is a prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst, and former general.

He has a reputation for being accurate and highly credible.

Ben–Israel has run the numbers on the Kung Flu and he has noticed a very interesting pattern. "Simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it. Analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that 'there’s a set pattern' and 'the numbers speak for themselves.'"

His conclusion is that regardless of the lockdown measures imposed in any given country, the China Flu runs its course in approximately 80 days.

Marina Medvin found additional coverage of Ben–Israel in Mako where he addressed the lockdown situation, "It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures.

"Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks. I have no explanation. There are is [sic] kinds of speculation: maybe it’s climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle."

Naturally the response of the Lockdown Posse is what about Italy?!?!?

Ben-Israel’s response, "The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu."

Authorities in Israel have taken the China model as their approach to fighting the virus and Ben–Israel disagrees. "I think it’s mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I don’t see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic."

He believes the social–distancing policy would be enough for any country’s anti–virus efforts.

The takeaway from this is the cycle in the U.S. is coming to an end. Ben–Israel is not a doctor or an epidemiologist, but you don’t need to be either to count the bodies and look at a calendar.

As pressure — which we support — to reopen the U.S. increases, it might be a good idea to consult Ben–Israel in the interest of getting a second opinion on the disease.

Michael Reagan, the eldest son of President Reagan, is a Newsmax TV analyst. A syndicated columnist and author, he chairs The Reagan Legacy Foundation. Michael is an in-demand speaker with Premiere speaker’s bureau. Read Michael Reagan's Reports — More Here.

Michael R. Shannon is a commentator, researcher for the League of American Voters, and an award-winning political and advertising consultant with nationwide and international experience. He is author of "Conservative Christian’s Guidebook for Living in Secular Times (Now with added humor!)." Read Michael Shannon's Reports — More Here.

© Mike Reagan


Reagan
The takeaway from this is the cycle in the U.S. is coming to an end. Ben–Israel is not a doctor or an epidemiologist, but you don’t need to be either to count the bodies and look at a calendar.
covid, lockdown
580
2020-14-24
Friday, 24 April 2020 04:14 PM
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