Consider President Trump’s address on Dec. 18, 2017 National Security Strategy, which might be inspiring the Iranian people to demonstrate. In that address, the president said, "Dictatorships of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran are determined to destabilize regions, threaten Americans and our allies, and brutalize their own people." (Emphasis added).
Now view Bill Clinton’s first and last NSS documents — February, 1996 and December 2000. In the first, he says, "In Southwest Asia, the United States remains focused on deterring threats to regional stability, particularly from Iraq and Iran if those states pose a threat to U.S. interests, to other states in the region, and to their own citizens." (Emphasis added).
Regarding Obama, "The 2010 Obama NSS concentrated on engagement with Iran’s government — something sought 'without illusion.'" Ditto for 2015, when the White House was testing its Interim Joint Plan of Action [nuclear deal with Iran].
Words are often of less consequence than the messenger delivering them and credibility of the speaker. Trump’s words were like those of Clinton and Obama. But Trump has more credibility than his two predecessors. Trump doesn’t sugar-coat his words with offers to engage with Tehran; rather, his tough talk energizes the organized resistance.
With an image of toughness that Trump would follow up his words with deeds, e.g., he would support the Iranian people as they revolt against the regime, here follows a synopsis of breaking news events in Iran. They might signal the tide is turning against the regime, with the backing of Trump:
Breaking News of an Ongoing Revolution
Mashhad, the second most populace city of Iran and several other cities throughout Iran are scenes of major anti-government demonstrations on as 2017 ends.
Protestors in Mashhad, and 5 other major cities are chanting "Death to the dictator," "Death to [Hassan] Rouhani," "Don’t be afraid, we are together," "Forget about Syria, think about us," "Not Gaza, nor Lebanon, my life for Iran," were reportedly among the slogans.
People are protesting the rising cost of living in Iran, but the protests quickly are turning political, challenging the regime in its entirety.
The demonstration of the people of Mashhad, is spreading quickly to a vast area of the city, with participation of about 10,000 people. Demonstrators, who include men and women, elderly people and children. Before the rally starts, many repressive forces and counterinsurgency guards are present in the place.
However, due to large number of people they could not do anything. People are pushing security forces aside and continue to demonstrate. Police officers are shooting into air and throwing tear gas to intimidate and disperse the people, but the youth are throwing back the tear gas to the regime’s forces.
Police forces are attacking the people and severely beating many them, and spraying tear gas at the eyes of demonstrations, making people furious. They are breaking down middle of the road blocks and signs and fences and punishing officers, who are beating them.
The arrival of water cannon vehicles is making people angrier, and they are attacking the water cannons with rocks, wood and glass, and clashing with repressive forces who are shooting at them. The clashes are harming and wounding many. The people are frightening repressive forces, and are escaping from the scene on their motorcycles.
Madame Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran declared, "The heroic uprising of today in large parts of Iran has once again proved that the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime and the establishment of democracy and the rule of people is a national and public demand."
The lack of regime moderation after the nuclear deal of 2015 is a clear indicator of the correctness of Trump’s new strong approach toward Tehran. As he pointed in his U.N. speech, it showed Tehran’s Achilles Heels and the Iranian people are the biggest threat to the regime.
Trump time suggests his credible threat to support the Iranian people and their organized resistance is at hand.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran and its leading constituent group the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) have played a key role in organizing protests in Iran. Their network inside Iran is key for informing the world of Tehran’s nuclear threat.
Regime change in Iran by the people is within reach. It requires a strategic vision to see it and Trump has all the necessary elements to make it happen — capability, credibility, and an organized resistance on the ground to effect regime change from within.
Neither the Bushes nor Obama assisted the Iranian people when they rose up to change the regime in Tehran.
Prior Iranian revolutions were from within and had little support from outside actors, indeed, despite them.
The Iranian Revolution, 1905 –11, was caused by dissatisfaction with economic stagnation, malignant influence of Western power, and results of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 – 05, as well as the Russian revolution of 1905.
Sparked by beating of a merchant accused by Tehran’s governor of raising prices, mullahs and merchants alike took sanctuary in Tehran’s royal mosque, demanding justice from the Shah. Radical preaching and violence ensued, followed as well as demand for establishment of a parliament.
Hence, the first majlis were created as a result in 1906, granting power to popular-class guilds. The intent was to set up a constitutional monarchy with power held by a parliament and chosen ministers. Majlis produced the Iranian constitution that remained in effect, albeit largely ignored by the monarchs — until the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The Way Forward
First, President Trump, this study finds you can bring about regime change from within Iran. Your words have more credibility than others, such as those of Clinton and Obama.
Trump time means you can be the man of the 21st century, in view of the strategic importance of Iran. It sits in the Mideast, which is hot strategic territory. It is not only Israel that would benefit from regime change in Iran, but Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf states think of Iran as their main strategic threat.
Second, Mr. President, this study finds you can use breaking news of the day, as an opportunity to change history. As of this writing, protestors in 6 other major cities are chanting Resistance slogans they shouted in prior efforts to change the regime. They include "Death to the dictators," "Don’t be afraid, We are together," "My life for Iran.”
Third, Donald Trump, successful prior Iranian revolutions began as street demonstrations, followed by security force crackdowns, which prompted even additional protests. Witness revolutions in 1905 and 1979. They were discounted at first, but became the spark that grew into a revolutionary fire, toppling the monarchs of the day.
But the effort to change the regime after the U.S. invasion of Iraq and in 2009 failed. The West did not give the slightest indication of interest. The organized resistance is not seeking material assistance, although it is needed, because the people are rising on their own steam and don’t want their efforts to be tainted by overt material support.
In conclusion, one might reasonably ask, "How did the 1905 and 1979 revolutions succeed without western effort?" No one knows for sure: Intelligence agencies and social scientists failed to predict” The fall of the Berlin Wall and subsequent collapse of the Soviet empire; Arab revolts of 2011, which began like the Iranian Revolution of 2015 — an insult to a street merchant who was willing to challenge the regimes in Tunisia, and is a spark spreading throughout the regime to Egypt, and will eventually bring down the Syrian regime.
This study does find a trigger has lit a fire, which grows hotter and might bring down the Iranian regime. This is Trump's time. Continue showing your leadership President Trump by providing moral support to the resistance against the regime. They are likely to energize the people bring down the ayatollahs and seize control of their country.
Prof. Raymond Tanter (@AmericanCHR) served as a senior member on the Middle East Desk of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush administration, Personal Representative of the Secretary of Defense to international security and arms control talks in Europe, and is now Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan. Tanter is on the comprehensive list of conservative writers and columnists who appear in The Wall Street Journal, Townhall.com, National Review, The Weekly Standard, Human Events, The American Spectator, and now in Newsmax. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.
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