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The Latest Political Events

Wednesday, 08 September 2004 12:00 AM

1) Bush’s post-convention bounce: While conservatives rejoice that Mr. Bush is

Remember: until voters actually vote, they can always change their minds.

Kerry is his most dangerous when he is facing the abyss of an ignomious defeat. And he now – again – faces this distinct possibility this fall.

His well-publicized ‘reach out’ to Bill Clinton shows something: Kerry knows he is in Big Trouble and he is willing to try something new until he finds something that works. Like a slumping golfer or baseball hitter, Kerry is back in practice mode experimenting with new themes, lines and approaches until he finds something that works.

(Eight weeks to go and he

Team Bush had better not get too complacent themselves, because eight weeks is an eternity in politics.

2) GOP 2008: All the talk here in NYC last week was about which Republican would be our nominee in 2008: Rudy or McCain or Pataki or Frist?

Well, guess what?

In that case, look either for Jeb Bush or Vice President Cheney to be its choice. The others will have trouble bucking the GOP Establishment and raising cash. Ironically, they were all praising ‘W’ in hopes of currying favor for 2008, but if ‘W’ wins, then they are all placed on the back burner by the very president they praised!

But if Bush loses this November, all bets are off. He will be the second President Bush to blow a presidency in 12 years. The GOP will certainly be thrust into an internal civil war, with the ‘paleo-conservatives’ fighting the ‘neo-cons’ and everyone angry about blowing total GOP control of power.

Under that circumstance, the Bush Machine will be weakened and the ‘automatic right of succession’ for Jeb to become the third President Bush will be greatly damaged.

Much rides on this November 2 – including the future of the GOP and the campaigns of half a dozen Republican wannabes.

3) Russia: The recent spate of bombings, jet attacks and the awful hostage-taking at the school in Belsan show that long-repressed Muslims have declared war on Putin’s government.

What’s to come?

Well, Putin is struggling with the answer. His KGB-trained instinct is to crack down hard in Chechnya, but he also knows that that approach may only incite even more jihadists to attack throughout Russia.

Whatever he does, Russia is imploding. Putin’s power will only wane as he becomes a lame duck; a power vacuum will grow and anarchy will spread.

It is going to get much, much worse before it gets better in Russia.

4) Blowback payback: Dan Rather is now back on the story of G.W. Bush’s National Guard service. Scandal author Kitty Kelley is out with her huge Bush book next Monday, which is so incendiary that even Newsweek wouldn’t excerpt it.

The ‘announcement’ of the 1,000th combat death – aimed at hurting President Bush’s campaign – is getting huge media attention.

The so-called ‘mainstream media’ have had enough of the Swift Boat vets; they are now going to come a-gunnin’ for Bush as a sort of payback.

It could get very ugly very soon.

November 2 seems light years away.

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1) Bush's post-convention bounce: While conservatives rejoice that Mr. Bush is Remember: until voters actually vote, they can always change their minds. Kerry is his most dangerous when he is facing the abyss of an ignomious defeat. And he now - again - faces this...
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Wednesday, 08 September 2004 12:00 AM
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