Tags: Strong | Doubts

Strong Doubts

Tuesday, 21 May 2002 12:00 AM

This week President Bush is in Moscow to sign several important agreements with Putin, "to leave behind the legacy of the Cold War." This is just the right time to do it, because America already is engaged in the new war.

During the recent conference of the Council for National Policy, one of the speakers discussing the international political and military situation (possibly Mr. Buchanan) used the expression "World War IV" in the following context: "During the 20th century, America won three world wars: World War I, World War II and the Cold War, which in reality was World War III. The 9-11 strikes initiated World War IV, which America and its allies are waging against world terrorism and its [open and hidden] supporters. By any means, America must win this war."

All the participants in the discussion actively supported this thesis.

Remarkably, just one week after this discussion, on May 10, Krasnaya Zvezda, the official newspaper of the Russian army, published an article by Alexei Lyuashchenko: "The Fourth World War: Myth or Reality?"

Its major points (very briefly) are as follows: The fourth world war (WW IV) is now engulfing this planet. This war differs greatly from WW I and WW II, as well as the Cold War, which is sometimes referred to as WW III. This WW IV encompasses political, economic and military fronts.

On the political and economic fronts, a struggle for a new world order is under way, with Washington advocating a unipolar, U.S.-led world and the right to decide the world's destiny. This concept, however, doesn't suit many countries, namely Russia, China, India and their multiple allies in the Third World. The Second World of socialist countries has vanished, and the planet is divided into the U.S.-led First World and the Third World.

The new war could be considered the war of the First World, i.e., Golden Billions, against the Third World.

On the military front, the U.S. and NATO carried out aggression against Yugoslavia and are engaged presently in a counterterrorist operation on Afghan territory. The U.S. is preparing new military actions and simultaneously deploying its NMD system as well as the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. The Pentagon also plans to develop miniature nuclear devices.

The U.S. is just about the only country in the world that can deploy large aircraft carrier task forces, strategic air-transport commands, and impressive satellite clusters, as well as reconnaissance and data-exchange networks.

Still, it's crystal clear that the world has responded adequately to this U.S. challenge: China has boosted its defense budget by an unprecedented margin this year. According to analysts, the bulk of Chinese military spending will be used to develop space rockets and satellites in line with a new national strategy.

What should Russia do now, when NATO expands eastward and its mightiest military machine moves even closer to Russian borders? Russian President Putin delivered his annual state-of-the-nation address this past April. According to this speech, Russian foreign (and military) policy should be based on CYNICAL PRAGMATISM. (end of article)

Let's look at the major events of the last several weeks.

1) The April visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin to Tehran upgraded the ties between China and Iran. Jiang preliminarily discussed the major aspects of this visit with Putin. In parallel, some important exchanges between Moscow and Tehran took place. As a result, the flow of Russian and Chinese military and dual-use technology, including that directly related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD), additionally expanded. The Moscow-Beijing-Tehran alliance has become an undeniable reality.

2) According to multiple sources (e.g., a May 12 article in the influential Tokyo-based Nihon Keizai Shimbun), in 2002 Russia significantly increased its weaponry exports, which go primarily to China and (to a lesser degree) India.

In particular, on April 17, the Chinese Commission on Science, Technology & Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) and the Russian Aviation and Space Agency (Rosaviakosmos) signed an agreement on large-scale cooperation, the first in 10 years. This agreement prescribes the intensifying of cooperation in space technology and joint development of new-generation aircraft for civilian and defense purposes. In short, Russia is transferring to China – for payment – its last "crown jewels in aircraft and space technology"; they will be handy for China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in its modernization.

3) A meeting of the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO] member-countries was held in Moscow on May 15. In a joint communiqué, the defense ministers from Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan confirmed their intentions toward defense coordination and military cooperation within the SCO framework. At China's initiative, the sides have agreed to hold joint "anti-terrorist exercises" (military maneuvers).

Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian, who was accompanied by Deputy Chief of PLA General Staff Xiong Guangkai (chief of military intelligence) and other PLA top brass, on May 16 met Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and (according to the Xinhua news agency) "discussed the status quo and development prospects of military relations between China and Russia and safeguarding strategic stability in the international arena.

"Both sides expressed satisfaction with the status quo of the relationship between the two armies and were of the same view that the friendly cooperative relationship between the militaries of China and Russia is an important component of the two countries' strategic cooperative partnership. Both sides expressed that they would further deepen the friendly cooperative relations between the two countries and make positive efforts to promote world and regional peace and stability." (end of Xinhua quotation)

The meeting between Sergei Ivanov and Chi Haotian was preparation for a much more serious summit. It is expected that in June 2002, during the conference of SCO heads of states in St. Petersburg, Jiang and Putin will additionally upgrade and expand the Chinese-Russian strategic military cooperation – within the framework of the Chinese-Russian Good Neighborly Treaty of Friendship &Cooperation, signed in July 2001 in Moscow.

4) It became known at the end of March that Russia's Ministry of Nuclear Energy (Minatom) intends to construct a nuclear power station in North Korea. The Bush administration is against this project, but the voice of Minatom is strong enough in the Kremlin.

And in April, the Kremlin's plenipotentiary in the Russian Far East, (general-governor) Konstantin Pulikovsky, reached agreement on Putin's visit to Pyongyang in early 2003. North Korea, a "proud member of the 'axis of evil,'" is under the "double shield" of China and Russia. The same is true for Iran.

5) The economic and military ties between Russia and Belarus, "the last dictatorship of Europe," are on a steep rise, according to Moscow media. "Pop" Lukashenko and the notorious Pavel Bordin, the secretary of the Russian-Belarus Union, are radiating happiness.

6) On May 17, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stated during a meeting with the Russian ambassador in Caracas, Yermakov, that relations between the two countries are on a high level and should be additionally upgraded. Chavez showed his gratitude to Putin for "the principal support of the Venezuelan legal authority during the coup of April 11-14."

That's enough information to ask the question: On whose side is the Kremlin in WW IV?

And should we consider the statements of Putin himself and his ministers about "new relations with America" as anything more than lip service within the framework of the aforementioned "cynical pragmatism"?

Those in America still inclined to consider Putin as a "friend" should understand – before it is too late – that he is a fake friend, worse than 10 enemies put together.

Recently, the authors finished comprehensive research on the economic and technological potential of China. The research was sent to the most prominent Sinologists in the Hudson Institute, American Enterprise Institute, Congress's U.S.-China Security Commission. (This research probably will be printed as a supplement to the authors' book "The Chinese-Russian Military Alliance," to be published by NewsMax Corp., scheduled for June) None of these experts tried to deny the following major conclusions of the authors:

1) China's GDP per capita, measured on the basis of the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) of local currency, approached $7,000 in 2001 (in current U.S. dollars and prices). At least 50 percent of China's GDP is concentrated in the most developed coastal regions, with a population of some 22 percent of China's total. GDP per capita in these developed regions, measured by the PPP method, approached $14,000 in 2001 (about 50 percent of Japanese GDP per capita and about 40 percent of the U.S. level). This level could approach $15,000 in 2002.

2) The share of R&D expenses in China's GDP surpassed 1 percent, which is very unusual for a developing country. This share is significantly higher in the developed coastal regions. The same regions, by 2000-2001, had built up a huge and comparatively advanced mechanical engineering industry and information technology industry.

3) China's real defense expenditures – if "hidden articles" are taken into account and current U.S. prices are used for all the related goods and services – greatly surpassed the $200 billion level. This is almost triple Chinese military expenses for 1996.

A final conclusion: the present coastal regions of China, jointly with old defense industry centers in the internal regions of this country, are capable of producing almost any weapon in almost any quantity. By 2005 – taking into account the predictable economic-technological development and new growth of military expenses – China evidently will be capable of producing any weapon in any quantity, including the most dangerous ones.

One can forecast (without giving the unnecessary technological details, described already in our previous articles) that by 2010, the PLA will have on combat duty hundreds of advanced MIRVed ICBMs, a fleet of new-generation nuclear submarines and, possibly, some quantity of air-launched Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs). The total number of long-range nuclear warheads in the PLA inventory could surpass 2,000, thus putting the U.S., with a then-reduced nuclear potential, into great trouble. (End of conclusions from research)

The PLA's nuclear potential will be accompanied almost certainly by developed space forces. This will make Chinese nuclear weapons much more dangerous. The U.S.-Russian nuclear reduction agreements could result in very bitter fruits – for America.

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

You may contact Dr. Torda at

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This week President Bush is in Moscow to sign several important agreements with Putin, to leave behind the legacy of the Cold War. This is just the right time to do it, because America already is engaged in the new war. During the recent conference of the Council for...
Tuesday, 21 May 2002 12:00 AM
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