Tags: Sabato: | Bush | Bounce | Will | Fade

Sabato: Bush Bounce Will Fade

Wednesday, 08 September 2004 12:00 AM

Seems Americans just weren't buying what Kerry and Edwards had to sell.

Then along came the Republican National Convention and, as expected, delegates nominated President Bush and Vice President Cheney to head up the party once again this election year.

The difference between the conventions? According to those same serious political polls, Bush-Cheney got a very respectable bounce from potential voters, leading to, in some cases, double-digit leads over the two Johns.

And yet it's not all over for Kerry-Edwards. That's because the real campaign question is: will the Bush-Cheney lead hold?

Most political gurus predicted the Bush-Cheney team would score as poorly as the Kerry-Edwards team in terms of whether each team's respective party convention would help in the polls. They were wrong.

But now another analyst says not only will the Bush-Cheney bounce fade, by the time the president and his challenger launch a series of debates, the race will once again become a statistical horse race.

Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says in his "Crystal Ball" publication, "The Bush bounce notwithstanding, we'll bet that by debate time, the Bush-Kerry horserace is again a near-statistical tie."

Sabato has history on his side. Most candidates receive upward bounces in polling figures right after their respective national conventions. Yet this year, even that constant was, well, inconsistent.

Sabato says what is unique about the post-convention figures is not so much that Bush got a bounce in the polls, but that Kerry didn't. Sabato says Kerry isn't "likeable" to swing voters, and he says the Democrats focused too much on his Vietnam experience during their convention, rather than other issues and Kerry's Senate record.

Still, come debate time, some of Bush's bounce will have dissipated. But, predicts Sabato, victory in November for the GOP will depend upon how much shine is lost from the chrome of the Bush-Cheney machine between now and then.

"The real question is not whether the Bush bounce will fade, but whether it all will disappear -- or whether Bush will retain a crucial few points that could easily be the difference between victory and defeat," he says.

106

© 2019 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
Pre-2008
Seems Americans just weren't buying what Kerry and Edwards had to sell. Then along came the Republican National Convention and, as expected, delegates nominated President Bush and Vice President Cheney to head up the party once again this election year. The...
Sabato:,Bush,Bounce,Will,Fade
359
2004-00-08
Wednesday, 08 September 2004 12:00 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved