Tags: Perfect | Storm | 2004

No Perfect Storm in 2004

Wednesday, 27 October 2004 12:00 AM

I'm not dumb enough to answer that one. But one week out, here's what I think I know:

Some of the states that you read the national campaign has written off the state managers still think they can win on the ground with the locals. Stay tuned.

Much of this plays out in advance. There is very little principle, and a great deal of politics, involved.

Those who were also registered in New York and New Jersey receive warning letters on the illegality of voting in two places. The goal seems to be to discourage them from voting in Florida until they unregister back home.

Those who are also registered in Georgia and Alabama receive letters encouraging them to vote in Florida, without regard to the other registration.

You don't have to be a veteran of Florida politics (Carter '80, in my case) to know the difference between groups that lean Democrat (elderly Jewish New Yorkers, overwhelmingly) and those that lean Republican (white Southerners).

Anyway, goose-hunting, the continued mess in Iraq and the second coming of Bill Clinton, who in this case pumps everyone up (in America, recovery from illness excuses all), has turned the mini-tide back to Kerry.

You can't get it from calling people and asking them what they are, because that assumes that the people you call on the phone reflect the voting population. Republicans are much more likely to be the stable, residential phone-answering types than the cell-phone-only kids, minorities and poor people that Democrats are hoping will turn out in record number.

Who are these new registrants? For my two cents: I've never seen anything like the enthusiasm on the Democratic side. There's a phone bank in Delray Beach, Fla., that is known from coast to coast as the best in the country.

So why focus on the national horserace? Isn't it distorted by big leads for a Democrat in states like California and New York? But the truth is that whoever wins the popular vote should win the electoral vote. That's the way it always happens, except on the rare occasions when it doesn't.

COPYRIGHT 2004 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.

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I'm not dumb enough to answer that one. But one week out, here's what I think I know: Some of the states that you read the national campaign has written off the state managers still think they can win on the ground with the locals. Stay tuned. Much of this...
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2004-00-27
Wednesday, 27 October 2004 12:00 AM
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