Tags: How | Bush | Could | Win | Without | Florida

How Bush Could Win Without Florida

Thursday, 09 November 2000 12:00 AM

Without Florida's 25 electoral votes, Bush would have to win the other two states that are still undecided – Oregon with seven votes and New Mexico with five. (Both of these undecided states, by the way, were colored in as won by Gore on an NBC News map during a broadcast Thursday.) And he would have to have Gore's apparent 6,000-vote victory in Wisconsin – with its 11 electoral votes – overturned in a recount.

Those 23 electoral votes would give Bush exactly what he needs to win, even without Florida.

While Gore must have 270 electoral votes to win, Bush needs only 269. That's because if the candidates tie with 269 votes each, the election is thrown into the House of Representatives, where Bush's election is a near-certainty. In the House, each state, no matter what its population, gets one vote. The members of a state's congressional delegation will vote among themselves to decide for whom their state will cast its one ballot.

Because Republicans tend to do better in smaller states, the GOP will have a majority in at least 31 of the 50 states' congressional delegations in 2001. The balance of power in New Jersey, however, is still up in the air.

There are still other scenarios in which Bush could win without Florida. Even if he loses Oregon or New Mexico, he could still become president if he wins in a potential Iowa recount. Iowa's seven electoral votes are in the Gore column, but by only 5,000 votes.

In summary, Bush would need to take back Wisconsin and two of the following three states: Oregon, New Mexico, or Iowa.

In Wisconsin and Iowa, Republican officials say they are looking into the possibility of requesting recounts.

In this kind of hard-nosed end game, Gore's best chance to claw back electoral votes via a recount would probably be in New Hampshire, where Bush's winning margin is a little under 8,000 votes.

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Without Florida's 25 electoral votes, Bush would have to win the other two states that are still undecided – Oregon with seven votes and New Mexico with five. (Both of these undecided states, by the way, were colored in as won by Gore on an NBC News map during a...
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Thursday, 09 November 2000 12:00 AM
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