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Did Bush Peak Too Soon in Key States?

Wednesday, 01 November 2000 12:00 AM

For example, I have used John Zogby’s polls as the basis for my election analysis because his track record is excellent. His polls in the past have been the closest to the final result. His polling technique has refined the methods of determining

Now, by ‘intellectual honesty’ I mean that I use Zogby’s polls whether I personally like the result or not. It would be

No, I cast my vote with the reliability of Zogby’s polls.

And I spent my own $59 to buy the 10-state daily tracking polls, which I use to write my NewsMax analysis.

Many readers have attacked me quite viciously because they disagree with my analysis of this race. That is because they do not want to

Having said that, it is legitimate to ask: Has Bush peaked too soon in the key battleground states?

Yes, I know that the national ‘horserace’ polls all show Bush slightly – but consistently – ahead. Even Zogby’s national tracking poll shows Bush four points ahead!

But, at the same time, Zogby’s state-by-state tracking poll shows Gore inching ahead in the key states he needs to win to secure the election in the Electoral College. Let us look at a few:

1) Florida: Since the Elian Gonzalez fiasco I have argued here on NewsMax that Gore would go all out to win Florida. Everyone said, "Forget it … ain’t gonna happen … Elian ruined it for Gore and, besides, Jeb Bush is governor!" Well, it looked bad for Gore in Florida until two things happened: Bush deliberately and purposefully stepped on the Third Rail of politics – Social Security – and saw his numbers among seniors immediately decline. And Gore’s selection of Joseph Lieberman galvanized Jewish voters in southern Florida.

Now the Sunshine State is moving into the Gore column. Even five weeks ago Jeb Bush said, "We may not win Florida and we are just now trying to figure out another way to get enough electoral votes without Florida." Zogby has Gore ahead by 10 points. And please note how G.W. Bush is not in Florida this week at all! Either he is confident he can win it anyway – or he has other states ranked as a higher priority. (He will go back before Election Day, for certain, but as of this writing he has no scheduled stops there.)

2) Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is the other big battleground state with a large number of seniors. Zogby has it moving slightly toward Gore – four points as of today. That, too, can be directly attributed to Social Security. No wonder Bush has had to retool his TV ads and blast back at Gore on Social Security. If Bush loses, he will rue the day he introduced this issue into the race. And for what? What votes did he get that he would not have had anyway?

3) Michigan: Gore is one point ahead. Obviously it is too close to predict. But Bush lost the Michigan primary to McCain and Gore is blasting away on TV. Plus he has the UAW planning a major get-out-the vote drive. How much faith can we have in Governor John Engler’s Election Day effort after his lousy performance in the primary?

4) Wisconsin: Gore now leads by 12. It may be over.

Simply speaking, if Gore wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan he is the next president. Period.

Two weeks ago Bush was ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan – and the race was closer in Florida. But the TV ad war has favored Gore since the debates ended. He simply has better commercials. In fact, since the New Hampshire primary Bush’s ads haven’t been as strong as they could have been. He made up ground in the three debates, but his commercials have not done him justice.

If Gore wins in these three states, it will be because he focused the voters through stronger commercials on Bush’s biggest weakness: Social Security. And Bush’s self-inflicted wound will be what elects Gore.

Or, you may not want to believe Zogby.

In six days we’ll see if his numbers were any good.

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For example, I have used John Zogby's polls as the basis for my election analysis because his track record is excellent. His polls in the past have been the closest to the final result. His polling technique has refined the methods of determining Now, by 'intellectual...
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Wednesday, 01 November 2000 12:00 AM
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