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Council of National Policy Conference, Part 2

Thursday, 16 May 2002 12:00 AM

If the present unstable situation continues until year's end (a very unpleasant prospect, from our point of view), this will bring to Russian state coffers approximately $1 billion per $1 of "war premium" (oil price increment).

When the powerful strike of U.S. forces finishes Saddam's regime, the major force fanning and supporting the fire in Palestine, the conflict will subside greatly, and the situation in the Middle East will return to normal.

Of course, those in the Kremlin perfectly understand this. And they don't want to lose both "beloved Saddam" and the "war premium."

During the conference, friends old and new asked one of the authors (Nemets) several times, what would be the position – or, possibly, even the actions – of Moscow at the moment of a U.S. strike at Baghdad? The same question probably concerns most NewsMax readers.

Almost certainly Moscow will make a series of harsh statements, but no direct action will follow. The Kremlin is not in a position now to undertake something really serious on the world stage. At the same time, it can make some "indirect" responses.

1) Since December of last year, the Kremlin-connected Moscow media have repeatedly stated that U.S. action against Iraq would unavoidably result in some major terrorist actions on U.S. territory (the authors on Dec. 27, 2001, published an article describing these threats and related matters). And this is not an empty threat.

The success of the 9-11 strikes was predetermined by the high-quality information support of "suicide squads," particularly from Cuban and Russian channels. There are serious grounds to conclude that the same channels are still acting and collecting information for new "suicide squads." The FBI demonstrates strange negligence!

2) Moscow could, jointly with Beijing, push some rogue regimes into conflict with America.

Iran is the most probable "candidate" here. Since July 2001 (when Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed in Moscow the Chinese-Russian Good Neighborly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation), the ties among Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have been upgraded dramatically and have reached the level of informal, though effective, strategic alliance. Tehran has used this alliance primarily for upgrading its "military-terrorist" potential with foreign weapons.

In addition, Iran, during the last several months, gave up its 20-year-long hostility with Iraq and, if one believes the Moscow media, Tehran and Baghdad concluded a defense agreement.

Iranian clerical leaders have many reasons for anxiety: U.S. and NATO troops are entering or have already entered the former Soviet republics of the Trans-Caucasus corridor and Central Asia to the north of Iran, and they are in Afghanistan to the east.

Toppling Saddam and establishing a pro-Western regime in Iraq will put Tehran in a very shaky position. Could Iran really join Iraq in the forthcoming fighting? This probability is rather low; however, some precautionary measures should be taken.

The speech of Dr. Constantine Menges (Senior Fellow of the Hudson Institute and former adviser in the Reagan administration) entitled "New Chinese-Russian alliance" at the CNP Conference on May 3 was (from the authors' point of view) the most interesting event of the conference.

The major theses of the speech, important enough to spread among NewsMax readers, were as follows (the booklet kindly provided by Dr. Menges and exchange of opinions with him are also used here):

In April 1996, in Beijing, Jiang and Russian President Boris Yeltsin established a "Chinese-Russian strategic partnership" with a strong component of shared anti-U.S. military-political objectives. By mid-2001, this partnership had developed into two new Sino-Russian alliances.

1) The two countries maintain a sense of normal relations with the U.S. and other Western countries so that they will continue providing China and Russia with vitally needed economic benefits. For Russia, this means trade with and aid from the West. For China, it is trade on a much larger scale, with a huge surplus and massive flow of direct foreign investment.

2) China and Russia are engaged in sophisticated covert activities aimed against the U.S.:

The elaboration of an effective counter-strategy has become an urgent task for the United States. The most prospective ideas are as follows:

The real problem here is the great underestimation of China's economic-technological and military potential by the U.S.-China-research community, let alone the Bush administration. Namely, according to recent research by the authors (partly mentioned in our recent article "

During the CNP conference, the authors had a chance to discuss this dangerous reality with Dr. Menges and other persons engaged in similar research and met with full understanding.

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

You may contact Dr. Torda at

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If the present unstable situation continues until year's end (a very unpleasant prospect, from our point of view), this will bring to Russian state coffers approximately $1 billion per $1 of war premium (oil price increment). When the powerful strike of U.S. forces...
Thursday, 16 May 2002 12:00 AM
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