Tags: Bush | Re-elect | Number

Bush Re-elect Number

Thursday, 26 June 2003 12:00 AM

A re-elect number is the number in a poll of respondents who say they would

The accepted rule in politics is any incumbent with a re-elect number under 50 percent is in trouble.

G.W. Bush's 42 percent re-elect is

The Bush White House feels – despite the worrisome 42 percent number – that things are lining up nicely for re-election in November 2004. Here is their view:

1) Saddam has been vanquished. Bush won the war.

2) The War on Terror will be the backdrop of the 2004 election and Bush is strong in the national security area.

3) The economy is rallying, albeit slowly.

4) The GOP has moved positively on a prescription drug benefit as a part of Medicare.

5) The Democratic field is weak. The White House salivates at the thought of running against many of the present field of Democratic presidential candidates.

The White House feels that they have co-opted the Democrats' best issues and control the agenda for 2004.

If that is so, others ask, then why the 42 percent? Why not 52 percent?

Good questions!

Here are some potential trouble spots ahead for the Bush White House:

1) The economy does

2) Another major terrorist attack occurs here inside the United States. Such an attack – and it is awful to think of such events as political fodder – could be used to undercut the main Bush issue: his handling of national security.

3) Iraq spirals out of control and a fundamentalist Shiite Islamic revolution seizes control over the southern half of Iraq – precisely where most of the oil is. Under this scenario, Bush's war against Saddam – without major allies in the Arab world – will be seen as a tragic error.

4) Some unexpected event – always a possibility – totally shakes up the 2004 race. 9/11

5) The nation is split 50-50 these days. Thus any one of the above could tip things either way.

President Reagan also had a weak re-elect number 18 months before his huge 1984 landslide. Then, as now, we were coming out of a recession. BY the summer of 1984 it was Morning in America; the economy was humming along and Mondale wanted to

G.W. Bush is poised to repeat that outcome, despite lingering fears that, instead, he might repeat his father's.

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A re-elect number is the number in a poll of respondents who say they would The accepted rule in politics is any incumbent with a re-elect number under 50 percent is in trouble. G.W. Bush's 42 percent re-elect is The Bush White House feels - despite the worrisome 42...
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Thursday, 26 June 2003 12:00 AM
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