Tags: Polls | virginia | governor | ed gillespie | ralph northam

Monmouth Poll Shows Virginia Race in Virtual Tie

Monmouth Poll Shows Virginia Race in Virtual Tie
Virginia Republican gubnatorial candidate Ed Gillespie (Steve Helber/AP)

By    |   Monday, 06 November 2017 03:25 PM

Democrat Ralph Northam holds a slim two percentage point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the election for Virginia governor, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday, just one day before the vote.

In the survey, Northam received 47 percent, Gillespie 45 percent, and Libertarian Cliff Hyra three percent, while five percent are undecided.

The race has remained virtually deadlocked for most of the past four months, although six weeks ago Northam held a five-point advantage.

"Despite some wide variations in other public polls on this race, Monmouth has consistently shown this to be a tight contest," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The nominal lead has gone back and forth between the two candidates. It could be anybody's game tomorrow."

He also said the race is "going to come down to the central part of the state. The counties surrounding the greater Richmond area are likely to determine the next governor."

Details of the poll bear this out:

  • Northam has a 59-30 percent advantage in the northern part of the state, while Gillespie leads by a 64-30 percent margin in the western areas.
  • Northam also leads in his home region in the east at 54-39 percent, while he also holds a slim 48-45 percent advantage in the central area.
  • In a reversal, 63 percent of the state's voters say the election has been generally negative, while only 25 percent say it has been positive. Just over a month ago, 56 percent said the campaign had been positive, while 30 percent had said it was negative.
  • Northam has a 43 percent favorable rating compared to a 31 percent unfavorable one, while Gillespie is at 40 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable.

On the issues, Gillespie is preferred over Northam on handling jobs and the economy by a 40-33 percent margin and on handling crime by 42-30 percent. Northam is preferred over Gillespie on taking care of healthcare by a 45-33 percent margin and on handling education by 44-30 percent.

Fifty-six percent say President Donald Trump is not a factor at all in the race, while 27 percent say he is a major factor and 16 percent a minor factor. In Virginia, 41 percent of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president and 53 percent disapprove.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe, the current governor who was not allowed to run again due to term limits in Virginia, has a 45 percent approval rating, while 40 disapprove of the job he has done.

The poll was conducted by telephone from Nov. 2-5 among 713 Virginia residents likely to vote in the election. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

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The Monmouth University Poll released Monday, just one day before the vote, shows Democrat Ralph Northam holds a slim two percentage point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the election for Virginia governor.
virginia, governor, ed gillespie, ralph northam
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2017-25-06
Monday, 06 November 2017 03:25 PM
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