Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has opened up a four-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida, which "paints a much rosier picture" and "has subtle but good news for his chances," according to the latest New York Times Upshot/Siena poll Sunday.
Notably, Trump's new lead is a five-point swing from his one-point deficit in the first edition of the poll in September, and these results came before James Comey's announcement Friday he has reopened an investigation into Clinton's private email server.
The Times reported the following reasons for Trump optimism in the poll:
- Trump expanding his hold on Republicans (86 percent of self-identified Republicans and 84 percent of registered Republicans).
- Decline in Libertarian Gary Johnson's numbers (down to just 4 percent), as "Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls," the Times wrote.
- Trump leads among white voters without a college degree (63 percent to 24) and has even exposed Clinton among white, working-class Democrats, which she leads just 55 percent to 32.
- Clinton's stronghold of the black vote is less apparent in Florida, where she leads 81-11, but is far less significant than where Trump holds just 1 percent of the black vote (like Pennsylvania).
- Trump has turned around the Cuban-American vote, which favored Clinton 41-33 in September, but is now in favor of Trump 52-42.
New York Times Upshot/Siena poll interviewed 814 likely voters in Florida from Oct. 25-27.
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