Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat, according to the latest forecast model from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.
Harris also has a 55% likelihood of winning the 2024 presidential election, but the race is still up for grabs accoridng to the report.
The report comes four days ahead of the only scheduled presidential debate between Democrat nominee Harris and Republican nominee Trump.
"I would put this debate as high as stakes as the one we saw" between President [Joe] Biden and Trump, Decision Desk HQ's Scott Tranter told The Hill.
The forecast counters Nate Silver's election model, which has Trump beating Harris, 60.1% to 39.7%.
Tranter told The Hill that Silver's model, statistically speaking, "is not an 'outlier' — to the general public we can understand how they might view his model as markedly different — in reality he is giving an ever-so-slight edge to Trump where we are giving an ever-so-slight edge to Harris."
"There is a lot of mathematical reasons for this, but [it] is a foreshadowing of what the next few weeks will be like as we go down the stretch," he added.
Silver's model, Tranter noted, contains additional factors, including momentum and an adjustment for polls taken during or immediately after the Democratic convention.
"We both cook a pretty good steak," Tranter said. "He has a few more ingredients that we choose not to do."
The Trump campaign sees Harris' recent poll numbers as being a result of a post-Democratic National Convention effect.
"We believe, internally, based on the data, that the plateau's been reached," Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes said, Bloomberg News reported.
Solange Reyner ✉
Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.
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