Former President Donald Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris head-to-head, something made more significant by nearly two-thirds of voters saying they don’t think President Joe Biden will finish his current term, according to a new poll.
When asked if Harris will be president before the end of Biden’s 4-year term, 64% of likely voters in the McLaughlin monthly May poll said she would.
Even among Biden voters (51%) and Democrats (50%), many said it’s likely Harris will be president.
In a presidential contest pitting Trump against Harris, the former president leads 49% to 45%.
Trump leads Harris among independents (48% - 42%) and suburban voters (52% - 42%), but also takes 39% of Hispanics and 17% of African Americans.
Although Biden maintains a net positive job approval — McLaughlin said the president’s favorable to unfavorable ratings are close to 53% approve to 46% disapprove — it’s down from last month when it was 56% - 43%.
The president has a net unfavorable rating among independents (47% approve to 51% disapprove), whites (44% - 56%), voters over 55 (47% - 53%), and men (47% - 52%).
The news for Harris is worse. She’s favorable with less than half (47%) of all voters, while 48% are unfavorable to her.
Harris still leads among Democrats in a potential 2024 primary field. She received 35% of the vote, which was more than former first lady Michelle Obama (16%), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., (7%), and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (6 %).
Despite much negative coverage about Trump in the mainstream media, 73%, of all Republican primary voters, which includes independents who vote in GOP primaries, want to see the former president run again in 2024.
The McLaughlin poll also said Republican primary voters would support Trump 82% - 13%, and they would vote for him in the general election 83% - 11%.
Asked who they supported in a crowded field of 16 potential 2024 Republican candidates, Trump earned 57% of the vote – well ahead of former Vice President Mike Pence (10%) and Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., (8%). Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., was last with 1%.
Without Trump as a choice, Pence (19%) led DeSantis (18%), Donald Trump, Jr. (13%), and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas (12%).
McLaughlin surmised Democrats “must have the same numbers in their polls” and it was "no wonder the Democrats have moved on from impeachment to hoping for new phony indictments."
With the 2022 midterms approaching, the poll found voters were trending against Democrats.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is very unpopular with only 37% favorable and 57% unfavorable.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is only 32% favorable to 48% unfavorable.
On a generic ballot, Republicans lead 47% to 46%.
Biden and Democrats also are feeling the effects of voters believing the economy is cooling off. In April, 52% of voters said the economy was getting better and 32% said it was getting worse. That has fallen to 49% - 43% this month.
Half the voters said the U.S. was in a recession, and only 42% said it was not.
The direction of the country has stalled at 49%, saying it was in the right direction, and 46% saying it was on the wrong track.
The monthly May national poll of 1,000 likely 2022 voters, modeled after the 2020 turnout, was conducted May 13-17.
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