Tags: Trump Administration | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton | Tom Bevan

RCP Publisher: Trump Needs 'Everything To Fall His Way'

By    |   Tuesday, 08 November 2016 03:32 PM

Tom Bevan, the co-founder and publisher of the site RealClearPolitics, said that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump needs "everything to fall his way, he needs a surge of voters" for him to win.

Conversely, if one of the states he was predicted to win goes to his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, "it's probably going to be game over for him."

If Clinton has a good night, she could end up with 320 or 330 in the electoral college, Bevan said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

Host Joe Scarborough said each candidate's supporters need to be patient.

"If you are a Trump supporter and you think it's over, just hold on, and if you are a Clinton supporter and think you have got this in the bag, just hold on, because we remember in 2000—and as Nate Silver always brings up—George Bush was up and Al Gore won the popular vote," Scarborough said.

Bevan said that, historically, polling in some places ends up not being a good predictor.

"There's a lot of agreement that Clinton has a 2-, 3-, 4-point lead nationally, but not as much agreement in the states."

If Trump does not win Nevada, Bevan said that Trump "needs to pick off one of these other states."

Bevan noted that Michigan has been a focus of both campaigns.

"I think Hillary has a lead there, but, again, it's a state that doesn't have early voting and does not have a huge Latino population, and I spoke to somebody in the Trump campaign, and they think have a better chance in Michigan than they do in Pennsylvania."

Also on the "Morning Joe" panel, Bloomberg Politics managing editor Mark Halperin noted the attitude of voters.

"Seventy-five percent of the country wants change and that's what Trump is closing on, this notion of draining the swamp … Trump has fervent supporters," Halperin said.

On the other hand, Halperin said, "Hillary Clinton has done a good job of keeping him from expanding the people who support him."

Trump will have difficulty getting to 46 percent, the margin of electoral votes needed to win, but Trump could survive a loss in Nevada, and still recover, Halperin said.

Long shots for Trump wins include Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Scarborough said.

Iowa could go to Trump, although the Democrats have won five out of the last six elections there.

In another "Morning Joe" segment, Scarborough pointed out Trump's connection with his supporters:

"People can sort of sense this guy is from Queens, he's not from the Upper East Side and they connect on some basic level, politically."

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Random House editor Jon Meacham said part of the Trump phenomena is the "seemingly permanent intersection of the celebrity culture and the political culture. We have gone from Richard Nixon saying 'Sock it to me?' to a guy who was in the top 10 on TV for fourteen seasons as the Republican nominee," referring to Nixon's appearance on the comedy show "Laugh-In" and Trump as host of "The Apprentice."

If Clinton begins to show signs of victory, Meacham said, "it will be a huge tendency for people to talk about this and will want to put Trump in an oddity box, or a basket of deplorables, or whatever you want to call it."

Trump's supporters and his effect on them are "a phenomena and it's going to shape the way we live. If people dismiss Trump's voters and why they did it, they are going to be making a serious mistake," Meacham said.

Scarborough said the call from the middle class is a "noisy revolution" involving Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders:

"The economic establishment doesn't get it, is stacked up against them, and is in it to make the rich richer and the poor poorer and the middle class more despondent year after year."

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius said, "The challenge for the new president will be distributing the "fruits" of the economy better so that many no longer feel left out. "People want to be on the ride with the economy, but want a fair share."

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Tom Bevan, the co-founder and publisher of the site RealClearPolitics, said that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump needs "everything to fall his way, he needs a surge of voters" for him to win. Conversely, if one of the states he was predicted to win goes to his...
Tom Bevan
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2016-32-08
Tuesday, 08 November 2016 03:32 PM
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