President Donald Trump's re-election team feels confident he will again win Texas in 2020 — but with his impeachment woes and wobbly standing with independent voters, it might be the slimmest margin of victory for a GOP presidential candidate in generations, Politico reported.
In 2016, Trump won by 9 percentage points, while past GOP presidential candidates, including Mitt Romney, won Texas by over 15 points in 2008.
"I expect President Trump to win Texas by 5 percentage points, not 9 points this time," Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, told Politico.
"There are long-term demographic changes taking place in the state that eat into Republican support. The major cities like Austin, Houston, and Dallas are already leaning blue. Plus, his Republican coalition has been destabilized by his own actions and conduct."
Jillson told Politico that Trump has paid careful attention to his base.
"Many presidents wouldn't bother to come to Texas, but he spends a lot of time in Florida, Alabama, Texas, and other Southern states revving up the base to make sure that his support does not dissipate," Jillson said. "If he doesn't hold his base, he is cooked."
But he has got stiff competition from Texas Democrats, who have seen an uptick since the midterms in turnout among Hispanic voters and migration from the East and West coasts, Politico reported.
"If Donald Trump thinks he is coming to Dallas because it is the home of the 'Dallas' TV show, he's got something else coming to him," Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, told Politico. "There has not been a Republican countywide elected official in Dallas for some time now. It is very, very blue now."
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