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Tags: statistics | economy | pollsters | 2020 | re | election

3 Stats Modelers Give Trump Big 'Tailwind' for Re-election

3 Stats Modelers Give Trump Big 'Tailwind' for Re-election
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By    |   Monday, 27 May 2019 07:43 PM

A strong economy gives President Donald Trump a large "tailwind" in the 2020 presidential race, a variable three statistical modelers favor to project his re-election, according to Steven Rattner, a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.

"The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections," Rattner, a Wall Street executive, wrote in an opinion piece Monday for The New York Times. "At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.

"But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large."

The three statistical experts sourced by Rattner include Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi, who has analyzed 12 models that all project President Trump as the winner, and Trend Macrolytics's Donald Luskin, who honed in on the Electoral College and also projected re-election.

But, the best one, Rattner says, is Ray Fair, a Yale professor, whose model finds GDP growth and inflation are the two most economic predictors and incumbency the most important "determinant of presidential election outcomes." Fair's models pegged former President Barack Obama's victories and President Trump's shocker in 2016.

With a strong economy and incumbency on his side – unlike Democrats in 2016 who were opposing historical data – President Trump could get as much as 56.1% of the vote, even if pollsters are favoring Democratic primary frontrunner Joe Biden right now, according to Rattner.

"In 2020, incumbency will be a tailwind for Mr. Trump as the vast majority of presidents are chosen for a second term," he wrote in the Times.

"So the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election," Rattner concluded.

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Politics
A strong economy gives President Donald Trump a large "tailwind" in the 2020 presidential race, a variable three statistical modelers favor to project his re-election, according to Steven Rattner, a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.
statistics, economy, pollsters, 2020, re, election
311
2019-43-27
Monday, 27 May 2019 07:43 PM
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