Sen. Roy Blunt's seat isn't as secure as it once was, say Republican insiders, and it may cost the GOP its majority.
In his two-decade career in Washington, Blunt's made numerous connections, something his Democratic opponent Jason Kander, Missouri's secretary of state, has been campaigning heavily on.
"You have two competing themes here. One is Republican versus Democratic. The advantage there goes to Blunt because Missouri is a Republican-leaning state," an unnamed GOP strategist told The Hill. "The other theme is insider versus outsider, where the advantage goes to Kander."
Blunt's campaign have remained constant that he's "led in every internal poll this cycle," but the Hill's source in the Republican Party say otherwise.
"At one point Kander had pulled a little bit ahead of Blunt," the unnamed source said.
According to the Hill's source, internal Republican polling from September showed Kander leading by a slim margin.
Real Clear Politic's polling average has Blunt up 2.5 percentage points, but the latest poll, released by Emerson University on Sept. 15, shows Kander leading 42 percent to 40.
Now Kander, an Army National Guard veteran who released an ad in which he assembled an assault rifle blindfolded in 30 seconds, is being attacked by the National Rifle Association, who've spent over $1 million in the state.
"Jason Kander has a long record of voting against the Second Amendment," Jennifer Baker, NRA spokeswoman, told the Hill. "If elected, he would be a rubber stamp for an anti-gun Supreme Court justice who would vote to overturn law-abiding citizens' fundamental right to have a firearm in the home for self protection."
Republican-aligned outside groups have spent $9.7 million this cycle to support Blunt, according to a Hill source in the Democratic party, who said Democratic-allied outside groups spent $3.3 million.
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