Pennsylvania’s open seat remains the most likely Senate seat to flip in 2022, when both major parties vie for control of the upper chamber, according to CNN.
The Keystone State, where Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., is retiring, ranks ahead of No. 2 Georgia and No. 3 Wisconsin as the Senate seats most likely to be flipped, CNN reported Monday.
The other states where Senate seats are most likely to flip include No. 4 Arizona, No. 5 North Carolina, No. 6 New Hampshire, No. 7 Nevada, No. 8 Florida, No. 9 Ohio, and No. 10. Missouri.
Thirty-four of the 100 Senate seats will be contested in a chamber currently divided evenly along party lines.
Many of the 2022 races remain fluid, with more contenders likely to emerge. July marks the beginning of a new fundraising period, which means more candidates are likely to launch their campaigns, CNN said.
President Joe Biden carried six of CNN’s top 10 in the 2020 election -- Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
Among the states carried last year by former President Donald Trump, CNN said Florida has moved ahead of Ohio as more likely to see a Senate seat flip. That’s due to Democrats recently having done better at the presidential level in the Sunshine State, and with Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., opposing incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.
CNN cited Ohio – where Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, is retiring – as a prime example of Trump’s influence in the GOP. The top three candidates include former state party chair Jane Timken, 2012 Senate nominee Josh Mandel, and venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance.
Democrats regard Pennsylvania as as their top pick-up opportunity, according to CNN. despite not knowing who their candidate will be. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, D, and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh, backed by pro-abortion rights powerhouse and often powerful player in primaries EMILY's List, have announced their candidacies. Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., supposedly also is eyeing the race.
Army veteran Sean Parnell, who ran and lost against Lamb last year, and Jeff Bartos, a wealthy businessman who loaned his campaign $400,000 during the first quarter currently are battling in the Republican field.
In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., will be running for a six-year term after having one of two runoff elections in January.
Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black announced his candidacy in early June, but Trump last week said college and professional football great Herschel Walker plans on running. Walker’s status is having "a freezing effect on the field," according to CNN. Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black announced his candidacy in early June.
CNN said other Republicans are considering the race, including former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who recently tweeted about meeting with Trump.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson, R-Wis., hasn’t said if he will he run for a third term.
Republicans in Arizona are seeking to defeat incumbent Mark Kelly, D-Ariz, who’s running for a full six-year term after winning last fall. Attorney General Mark Brnovich recently entered the GOP field, with others still considering.
CNN said the GOP was using moderate Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., as an example that Kelly is too liberal.
CNN conducted its ranking based on reporting, fundraising data, and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.
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