CNN on Wednesday predicted that Republicans won’t lose any Senate seats in this year’s midterm elections following an announcement by Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson that he will seek reelection.
The news network notes that President Joe Biden won Johnson’s home state by just 0.6% of the vote in 2020 despite winning nationally with a 4.5% point advantage over former President Donald Trump, showing that Wisconsin voted more Republican than the rest of the country.
According to CNN, in the last 40 years, 86 of 87 incumbent senators in states that lean towards the opposition party in previous presidential elections have won elections during midterms.
Biden’s low approval ratings, which average around 42% or 43%, make it "unlikely" that he will be popular enough for Democrats to overcome history and change course in the elections, according to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten.
Five Republican senators have announced their intent to retire, and those seats represent "Democrats’ best chance" to gain control over the Senate, but three of those seats are in states that voted more Republican than the rest of the country in the last couple of presidential elections.
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