Tags: Trump Administration | republicans | rattled | trump | backlash | midterms

Republicans Rattled by Trump Backlash, Implications for Midterms

Republicans Rattled by Trump Backlash, Implications for Midterms
(AP)

By    |   Thursday, 14 December 2017 10:51 AM

Data coming from the rash of special elections — especially the stunning defeat of Roy Moore in Alabama — have Republicans spooked about the implications for next year's midterm elections.

Trends that bear the hallmarks of a backlash against President Donald Trump.

No Republican "should feel safe about anything" Sen. Lindsey Graham told The Washington Post. "Our party is in turmoil."

Though the specific losses of Moore and the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey can be explained away, there's mounting evidence that a Democratic wave is in store.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats are performing 12 points better than their projections in 70 special elections so far in 2017.

Further, black turnout in urban Alabama soared in Tuesday's special election victory for Democrat Doug Jones while overall turnout dropped compared to the 2016 presidential election.

That's a trend that could have major impact on midterm elections in Indiana, Missouri and Ohio, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Turnouts for midterms are always smaller than presidential elections, but if blacks, for example, are inspired to buck that trend to vote against Trump, Democrats could enjoy a windfall in their attempt to retake the majority in the House.

"This is the first real evidence that a political backlash might be brewing to Trump-ian Republican politics," Julian Zelizer, a history and public affairs professor at Princeton University, told USA Today.

Another "troubling indication" for Republicans is that college-educated suburban women, who mostly supported Trump in 2016, turned against Moore and Republicans in the Virginia governor race, Republican pollster Whit Ayres told the WSJ.

The math doesn't favor Democrats in the 2018 Senate races; Dems have to defend 24 seats to just 10 for the GOP.

And Dems must flip 24 seats in House races to win back the majority.

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Data coming from the rash of special elections - especially the stunning defeat of Roy Moore in Alabama - have Republicans spooked about the implications for next year's midterm elections.
republicans, rattled, trump, backlash, midterms
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2017-51-14
Thursday, 14 December 2017 10:51 AM
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