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PPP Poll: Trump, Carson Hold Lead, Cruz Surges in Iowa

Image: PPP Poll: Trump, Carson Hold Lead, Cruz Surges in Iowa
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By    |   Tuesday, 03 November 2015 10:14 AM

Donald Trump and Ben Carson are in a virtual deadlock in early voting state Iowa — and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is surging, a new poll shows.

The Public Policy Polling survey, released Tuesday, shows the real estate billionaire with 22 percent support, and the retired pediatric surgeon with 21 percent. Ted Cruz comes in third with 14 percent.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Here are the results:
  • Trump: 22 percent
  • Carson: 21 percent
  • Cruz: 14 percent
  • Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 10 percent
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 6 percent
  • Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: 6 percent
  • Jeb Bush: 5 percent
  • Carly Fiorina: 5 percent
  • New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 3 percent
  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 2 percent
  • Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 2 percent
  • Rick Santorum: 2 percent
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham: less than 1 percent
  • Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore: 0 percent

Compared with the last PPP survey in mid-September, Trump is down 2 percent, but Carson's support is up 4 percentage points, the pollsters said.

"Ted Cruz seems to have gotten the biggest boost out of the last six weeks in Iowa," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "He's seeing the greatest improvement both in his support for the nomination and for his overall image in the state."

NPR reports the outsiders, Trump and Carson, both have impressive organizations on the ground in Iowa.

"The Trump campaign does have a real organization . . . a robust data operation as well," Iowa strategist John Stineman tells the public radio station.

Adds Carson's state director in Iowa, Ryan Rhodes, a tea party activist: "We have money, resources and people putting those resources to good use . . . At the end of the day, nothing's firm until the vote's cast."

In favorable/unfavorable ratings, here are the PPP survey results:
  • Carson: 74 percent/13 percent
  • Cruz: 62 percent/16 percent
  • Rubio: 60 percent/20 percent
  • Huckabee: 60 percent/21 percent
  • Jindal: 60 percent/18 percent
  • Fiorina: 55 percent/20 percent
  • Trump: 53 percent/34 percent
  • Santorum: 51 percent/21 percent
  • Christie: 48 percent/28 percent
  • Paul: 44 percent/28 percent
  • Bush: 30 percent/43 percent
  • Kasich: 22 percent/37 percent
  • Graham: 20 percent/38 percent
  • Pataki: 8 percent/34 percent
  • Gilmore: 3 percent/26 percent

"Even though he's still lagging pretty far back in the polls, Christie's had an amazing transformation in his image over the last two and a half months," the pollsters stated.

"When we polled Iowa in August right after the first Republican debate, only 34 percent of Republicans in the state had a favorable opinion of him to 44 percent who held a negative one . . . It's been quite a turn around."

"Jeb Bush is having a rough time in Iowa. Only 30 percent of GOP voters see him favorably to 43 percent with a negative opinion, giving him the highest unfavorable rating of any of the candidates in Iowa," the pollsters said.

Among tea party voters, candidates' support falls this way:
  • Trump: 22 percent
  • Carson: 21 percen
  • Cruz: 14 percent
  • Rubio: 10 percent
  • Huckabee: 6 percent
  • Jindal: 6 percent
  • Bush: 5 percent
  • Fiorina: 5 percent
  • Christie 3 percent
  • Kasich: 2 percent
  • Paul: 2 percent
  • Santorum: 2 percent
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is far ahead in support among caucus-goers:
  • Clinton: 57 percent
  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders: 25 percent
  • Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley: 7 percent

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Donald Trump and Ben Carson are in a virtual deadlock in early voting state Iowa - and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is surging, a new poll shows.
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Tuesday, 03 November 2015 10:14 AM
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