Support for Democrats to win back the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections continues to grow, according to a poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker released Sunday.
Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the House, and most polls suggest they should be able to pull off the feat. The CBS/YouGov survey suggests Democrats would stand to win 226 seats if the elections were held today, with Republicans winning the remaining 209. The margin of error, though, stands at plus or minus 14 seats, and some races are a bit too close for comfort, which means the GOP still has a shot at keeping the lower chamber.
The tracker, last updated in August, projected Democrats as winners of 222 seats. This time, though, CBS ran two additional models for the tracker: one where turnout ends up “higher or lower than the model currently suggests, along with small shifts in key voting groups.”
The higher turnout scenario results in Democrats winning 235 seats, while the lower turnout scenario equals a slim, 218-217 win for Republicans as they retain the House.
The uptick of four seats from August for Democrats can be attributed to a higher share of voters who picked President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election crossing over.
“While this group is small in absolute terms (it's 8 percent of Trump voters nationally), it is larger than the share of Clinton voters supporting Republicans this year (about 3 percent) and has grown since August,” reports CBS.
The survey's results were based on interviews with 4,831 registered voters from Oct. 9 to 12.
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