If the polls are to be believed, the fate of Paul Ryan might make for better drama than the presidential election itself. Regardless, the drama unfolding for the Speaker of the House will be "fascinating and tumultuous," writes Norm Ornstein in The Atlantic.
Assuming Republicans keep their majority in the House come Nov. 8, the election itself will be the prologue to Ryan's drama.
The nation's top Republican will be up for a floor vote, and he's likely going to be staring down a caucus that will have a bigger percentage of Freedom Caucus members, provided Republicans lose about 20 seats to Democrats, as expected.
And the Freedom Caucus has Ryan in its cross-hairs.
"It is clear that there is now a yawning gap between the Republican establishment leadership and the party rank-and-file," Ornstein writes. "But it also suggests that the vote for Speaker will be one of the most fascinating and tumultuous post-election events.
"The Republican departures … will come disproportionately from leadership loyalist ranks, strengthening the hand and role of both Freedom Caucus radicals and other Trumpist populists," Ornstein said.
From there, anything could happen, Ornstein writes:
Does Ryan resign? Does he work through his differences with the Freedom Caucus to return? Would he endure the embarrassment of falling short on the first floor vote? Would the membership push to replace Ryan altogether?
"It is a testament to the politics of our times that Paul Ryan, the most conservative Speaker in the history of the country, won't be conservative enough for a solid core of his own party in Congress, and is under siege from his party's presidential nominee and acolytes," Ornstein concludes.
© 2021 Newsmax. All rights reserved.