Nate Silver: GOP More Likely to Get 54 Seats in Senate Than Dems Are to Take Majority

Democratic chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate have decreased, with elections forecaster site FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday actually projecting Republicans with better odds of increasing to 54 seats than Dems taking over the majority.

The GOP has a 20.3 percent chance of boosting its majority in the Senate to at least 54 seats, while Democrats have only an 18.3 percent chance of taking over control of the chamber. The Republican chances of keeping the majority is at 81.7 percent.

Although Republicans were always favorites to maintain their majority in the Senate, the party’s odds have improved in recent weeks, with three states giving them a boost, the Washington Examiner explained.

Republicans are now considered "likely" to keep their seats in Texas and Tennessee, based on statistician Nate Silver's data, while North Dakota appears ready to go over to the GOP, which would almost assuredly be enough to give Republicans the overall majority. Silver is the founder of fivethirtyeight.com.

The most likely scenario for reaching 54 seats would be for Republicans to win toss-up states Nevada and Missouri, and then overcome current deficits in the polls to win in Arizona and Florida.

Republicans came into this year’s midterms with an advantage. With Vice President Mike Pence as a tiebreaking vote, Democrats need to win 51 seats to take over the chamber, while the GOP only requires 50.

In addition, Democrats are defending far more seats this time around, and the Senate map is heavily tilted toward Republican states.

• Trump Focuses on Immigration as Main Midterm Issue
• Tenn. Race: Marsha Blackburn Takes Narrow Lead in Senate Race