New York Times polling whiz Nate Cohn wrote Monday there was reason to be wary of a "Comey effect" on the 2016 presidential election.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton last week said FBI Director James Comey's letter to Congress indicating the agency was investigating additional emails in the case of her inappropriate use of a private server during her tenure as Secretary of State was a major reason for her loss to President Donald Trump on Election Day.
"Politicians, analysts and journalists are still debating whether the letter cost Mrs. Clinton the presidency. It's certainly possible. But I am not at all sure, in part because of the final Upshot/Siena College poll in Florida," writes Cohn.
The poll, Cohn says, shows that Clinton was weaker heading into Oct. 28 – the date Comey sent the letter – than was previously thought. She was down four percentage points in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, to Trump.
"Several other polls were conducted over the same period that showed Mr. Trump gaining quickly on Mrs. Clinton in the days ahead of the Comey letter," writes Cohn. "And the timing of these polls — particularly the gap between when they were taken and when they were released — has probably helped to exaggerate the effect of Mr. Comey's letter on the presidential race."
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