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Morning Consult Analysis: Clinton Would Barely Win If Election Held Today

Image: Morning Consult Analysis: Clinton Would Barely Win If Election Held Today
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By    |   Thursday, 14 Jul 2016 12:39 PM

Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning the White House than Donald Trump, according to a Morning Consult analysis released Thursday.

The analysis shows:
  • If the election were held today, Clinton would beat Trump in electoral votes 320 to 212, just shy of President Barack Obama's 332-206 victory over Mitt Romney in 2012.
  • But Trump is making gains in the Midwest. Clinton was beating Trump by 2 percentage points in Ohio in April and now Trump has a very slight advantage in the key swing state. Iowa previously leaned Clinton, but is now too close to call.
  • Clinton has maintained her grip on the East and West Coasts, with only Maine and the Carolinas going for Trump.
  • Several major states in the Electoral College ranks are closely divided between the two major party candidates, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, which each have them separated by one percentage point or less, and with over 15 percent undecided.
Morning Consult used opinions of 57,000 registered voters collected from April - June, combined with demographic data from each state.

A New York Times/CBS News poll released Thursday shows Clinton and Trump tied, possibly because of public reaction to the latest news about the former secretary of state's private email use. Two-thirds of voters say she isn't honest and trustworthy, more than the 62 percent who say that about Trump.

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Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning the White House than Donald Trump, according to a Morning Consult analysis released Thursday. The analysis shows:
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Thursday, 14 Jul 2016 12:39 PM
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