Tags: Roy Moore | monmouth | alabama | senate | doug jones

Monmouth Poll: Turnout Could Swing Ala. Race Left or Right

Monmouth Poll: Turnout Could Swing Ala. Race Left or Right
Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore (Brynn Anderson/AP)

By    |   Monday, 11 December 2017 05:40 PM

Voter turnout might end up being the biggest factor in Tuesday's Alabama special election, as the numbers could swing either way depending on how many people come out to vote in the contentious race.

The Monmouth University Poll looked at turnout models and received different election results. Republican Roy Moore, who has been accused by several women of sexual misconduct, and Democrat Doug Jones are competing for the seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

  • A high turnout like what Alabama saw in the 2016 presidential election, according to the poll modeling, might tip the race in Jones' favor, 48 percent to 45 percent.
  • Turnout similar to Alabama's 2014 midterm elections could give Moore a victory, 48 percent to 44 percent.
  • A model based on a higher turnout in Democratic ​strongholds means the race could be a toss-up, with each candidate receiving 46 percent support. The remaining votes might be broken up via a write-in candidate (2 percent) and undecided voters (6 percent).

"In a typical year, we would probably default to the historical model, which shows Moore ahead," Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said. "It could still end up that way, but both 2016 and 2017 suggest that typical models may not apply.

"If we see a surge in Democratic turnout, especially in the Birmingham region, Jones has a chance. On the other hand, if turnout is significantly lower than a standard midterm election, Moore's prospects increase."

Other key results in the poll:

  • Jones has 45 percent favorable rating and a 37 percent unfavorable rating.
  • Moore has 37 percent favorable rating and a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
  • 41 percent said the reports that claim Moore had relationships with teenage girls when he was in his early 30s are generally accurate. 27 percent said they are exaggerated and 22 percent said they are made up.

The RealClear Politics polling average shows Moore with a 2.2-point lead, although that includes a new Fox News poll that gives Jones a 10-point advantage heading into Tuesday's showdown.

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The Monmouth University Poll finds the Alabama special election between Republican Judge Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones will be determined by voter turnout Tuesday night.
monmouth, alabama, senate, doug jones
Monday, 11 December 2017 05:40 PM
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