Fifty-two percent of likely Arizona voters favor Democrat Mark Kelly in the Arizona senate race, compared to 43% who support Republican Sen. Martha McSally, according to a new poll from OH Predictive Insights (OHPI).
Kelly, a former astronaut, had led McSally by 13 points in a May poll.
The poll showed that McSally has the support of 4 out of 5 Republican voters, with Kelly taking 12%. Kelly earned the backing of more than 90% of registered Democrats compared to McSally’s 6 percent. Voters not affiliated with either major party favor Kelly 59-32 over McSally.
“The formula for a Republican winning statewide office in Arizona involves locking up the GOP vote and garnering just enough Independents,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “Sen. McSally appears to be having a difficult time doing either.
And Jacob Joss, an OHPI data analyst, added: “Coming back from a 9-point deficit less than 4 months from Election Day is not going to be an easy feat for McSally. “But for now, she appears at least to have pulled out of her tailspin and is headed on the right trajectory.”
The poll, conducted July 6-7, surveyed, 600 likely voters in Arizona. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points
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