Tags: larry sabato | senate | Democrats | minority | 2024

Larry Sabato: Senate Dems Likely to Be Minority Until 2024

Image: Larry Sabato: Senate Dems Likely to Be Minority Until 2024
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By    |   Friday, 06 October 2017 10:25 AM

Democrats won't re-take the Senate until at least 2024, according to the latest Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball report.

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics' Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, found that despite the poor poll results for the Republican Party, they still hold an advantage over Democrats.

"Democrats hold several seats in states where one might think, based on the presidential results, they have no business holding Senate seats in a polarized era. All of those dark-red state Democratic senators are up for re-election next year," he wrote.

"If a significant number of them lose to Republicans, it's hard to see how Democrats could make up that ground in 2020 or 2022 based on the seats being contested. Such is the GOP advantage, and the Democratic handicap."

Next year, Democrats have 10 senators facing re-election in states won by President Donald Trump, a Republican. The GOP only has one senator defending a seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton, Trump's Democratic opponent in the last presidential election.

Kondik also notes that "One would expect that Democrats would have more targets than Republicans in 2020, and that is correct, although the size of the Republican gain in 2014 perhaps makes their 2020 defenses seem harder than they might actually be."

He adds, "Democrats might be favored to make a modest net gain on this Senate map to start the 2020 cycle, but the Republicans do not start with a glaring handicap even though they already control two-thirds of the seats being contested."

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Democrats won't re-take the Senate until at least 2024, according to the latest Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball report.
larry sabato, senate, Democrats, minority, 2024
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2017-25-06
Friday, 06 October 2017 10:25 AM
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