Tags: Donald Trump | Trump Administration | larry sabato | donald trump | early | predictions

Larry Sabato: Too Early for Predictions About Trump in 2020

(Fox News' "Fox & Friends")

By    |   Monday, 16 October 2017 10:27 AM

Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon's weekend prediction that President Donald Trump would win the 2020 election with 400 electoral votes is a "little bit early," political analyst Larry Sabato said Monday.

"There are four possibilities," Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Fox News' "Fox & Friends" program. "President Trump will be re-elected overwhelmingly, President Trump will be re-elected by a little, President Trump will lose by a little, President Trump will lose by a lot. You pick the one that makes you the happiest."

The 2020 election remains three years away, Sabato pointed out, calling Bannon's comments a "bold prediction."

"It's free speech," he commented. "We are more than three years away from the election. I mean, it's a bold prediction. People are allowed to do whatever they want. I think it's a little bit early. Don't you think?"

Meanwhile, the 2018 midterms are approaching, and Sabato said the fact that Republicans haven't been successful in getting legislation through doesn't bode well for them.

"You know, Sen. [Ted] Cruz said there would be a bloodbath," said Sabato, referring to comments the Texas Republican made on Friday. "Actually he was saying if, if the Republicans don't get some accomplishments there will be a bloodbath ... other senators have said the very same thing. They have a year to produce and tax reform is their best shot that could change the picture. These are politicians. They know how quickly the ground shifts."

Sabato, though, said he does not think Democrats will gain enough seats in the House and Senate to take over the majority roles.

"I think Democrats would gain seats in the House, but not enough to take it over," he said. "They need 24 shifts. It doesn't sound like much. You have got a 435 seat House, but it actually is a lot, given the way the lines are drawn and given the power of incumbencies."

Instead, Sabato said he thinks Republicans will add seats.

"Republicans have only nine seats on the ballot and only two of them in Arizona and Nevada are actually vulnerable," he said. "The Democrats have 25 seats on the ballot. 10 of those Democratic seats are in states Trump carried, sometimes by as much as 25 points."

However, that's "not to say Republicans couldn't blow it if they don't pass something substantial," said Sabato.

Meanwhile, Sabato said he thinks Trump, as far as his job performance, is at about the same place he was on Election Day.

"I know polls have him in the 30's, but we're having the same problem with polling now in my view that we had before the election last November," Sabato said. "Don't forget, there are two parties involved. The Democrats have, at our count, 32 people, either running or considering running, and, you know, that's a lot of people. And, you know, somebody great could be nominated and somebody awful could be nominated."

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Politics
Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon's weekend prediction that President Donald Trump would win the 2020 election with 400 electoral votes is a "little bit early," political analyst Larry Sabato said Monday.
larry sabato, donald trump, early, predictions
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2017-27-16
Monday, 16 October 2017 10:27 AM
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