Rep. Katko Was Doomed Before Announcing Retirement

"Another one bites the dust" was the reaction of former President Donald Trump Friday afternoon following Rep. John Katko's announcement that he would not seek re-election in 2022.

Katko, R-N.Y., is the 3^rd of the 10 House Republicans who voted for the 45^th president’s impeachment last year to say he was "outta here"— as well as the 14^th Republican who is leaving the House — in ’22.

Although the Syracuse-area lawmaker cited the now-standard mantra for leaving Congress after four terms—"so that I can enjoy my family and life in a fuller and more present way"—Empire State Republicans told Newsmax that the likely redrawing of Katko’s 24^th District had almost doomed any chances of his returning to Congress.

"There are multiple maps being drawn by the [redistricting] commission," a source close to the redistricting process told Newsmax, "Every one of them creates a new ‘university district’—New York State University in Cortland County, Cornell University in Tompkins County and Syracuse University."

That means, explained the same source, "the 24^th will go from one with a 3 percent Democratic edge to one with 'plus 12 percent' or even ‘plus 17 percent’ Democratic.  That means the 24^th would almost certainly nominate and very likely elect a progressive Democrat over Katko."

But Katko, who voted for President Biden’s infrastructure bill as well as Trump’s impeachment, had serious problems on his right flank.

The New York Conservative Party, whose dual endorsement and ballot line have long been critical to Republicans winning any office in the state, recently made it clear Katko would not have its blessings in 2022.

Within the Republican Party, Katko (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 41.19 percent) faced his first-ever challenges to renomination. U.S. Air Force veteran Andrew McCarthy and physician’s assistant Tim Ko were both active candidates. 

One intriguing scenario is a bid in the new district by Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh, the first independent ever to capture City Hall. The son and grandson of moderate Republicans who both served as U.S. Representative, Walsh was elected mayor with the backing of Democrats and Republicans fed up with the local leadership of their respective parties.

With Katko out, what happens next in the 24^th District — or to the 24^th District — remains uncertain.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.